Future Prospects (AQA A Level Geography)

Prospects for the Global Population

• Although global population growth rates are in decline, UN predictions suggest total global population will continue to rise for some time
• Expected to increase from current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050
• Could peak at nearly 10.4 billion by 2085
• Possible decline after from 2085 onwards
• These trends are due to:
• A decline in fertility rate
• Predicted to decline from a global average of 2.5 today to 2 children per woman in 2100
• The fertility replacement rate is 2.1 to allow for infant mortality, so a rate below that means population will fall
• An increase in life expectancy
• Better healthcare and standard of living mean more people are living for longer
• Future total population predictions are problematic
• They rely on current trends continuing
• Political agendas in some areas might bring in anti- or pro-natalist policies which impact birth rates
• E.g. Singapore and Japan currently have policies in place to encourage people to have more children to lower their dependency ratios
• They don’t take into account external factors, such as war and pandemics, that can increase death rates significantly

UN Projections of Future World Population Total

• Most predictions follow the medium variant of the UN’s predictions
• The structure of all country’s population will continue to change
  • Youthful structures in fast growing populations such as in Nigeria will make the most of the demographic dividend
  • Many more countries will move into stage 4 and 5 of the demographic transition model and have ageing populations
    • 12% of global population was aged over 60 in 2015
    • Predicted to rise to 25% by 2050 (excluding Africa)

• Population growth rates will continue to vary spatially

Predictions of Future Population Distribution

Appraisal of Environmental Relationships

• Careful management of future populations and their environments is essential if the challenges are to be overcome
• The challenges and management strategies will vary from place to place
• In the developed world:
• The population of many European countries, such as Germany and Russia, are likely to decline
• Japan too is facing a declining population
• This will leave high elderly dependent populations with high dependency ratios
• Life expectancy will continue to increase
• A shrinking population of working-age people will be relied on to pay for the elderly, for example through taxes to pay for pensions
• Management of this issue includes pro-natalist strategies to encourage higher birth rates
• In 2022, the Japanese government announced plans to provide an additional US$592 to couples who have a child
• Critics argue this won’t be enough to turn the problem around
• Encouraging immigration of working age population is another strategy
• In 2020 the UK government introduced a points-based immigration system to encourage workers, including agricultural workers, truck drivers, and nurses, to help fill labour gaps
• However, immigration policies can be politically unpopular
• Japan has a poor record of immigration integration
• Republican policy in the USA has resisted Mexican immigration
• In the developing world, the issues are different:
• Very fast transitions through the stages of the demographic transition model
• The fertility rates of China and Brazil decreased from 6 to 2 in just 30 years
• The same took 80 years in the UK
• Similar transitions are expected in Africa but in the last 20 years fertility rates have fallen much less than expected
• In Niger the fertility rate has fallen from 7.8 to 6.5 in the last 30 years
• Management of population in LICs and NEEs is increasingly focusing on the role of education
• Educating women is one of the best ways to bring down fertility rates quickly
• Giving women the opportunity to have careers reduces the time available to them to have children
• In Ghana, women with a high school education have an average fertility rate of 2.5, whereas the rate for those with no education is 6
• However, progress in educating women in some sub-saharan African countries is slow
• High costs to the government and corrupt governance is to blame
• There can be poor access to family planning which offsets any gains made by education policies
• Other strategies for future population-environment management centre around resource consumption
• Sustainable development of agricultural practices and energy production to conserve scarce resources and manage the supply
• Investment into renewable energy technology will bring costs down and make renewable energy more viable for poorer countries
• Government policies to reduce and conserve resource consumption
• E,g, following up on the commitments set at the COP summits in Paris and Egypt
• Educating people about their resource use to ensure food, water and minerals are not wasted unnecessarily