Future Large Scale Release of Carbon (Edexcel A Level Geography)

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Louise Stone

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Geography

Future Emissions

Future Uncertainties

  • There are many uncertainties about future global warming and contributing natural and human factors
  • Uncertainty about natural factors include:
    • The role of carbon sinks and their capacity to cope with changes
    • Possible feedback mechanisms such as carbon release from peatlands and permafrost
    • Tipping points associated with forest dieback and the reversal of thermohaline circulation
  • Uncertainty about human factors include:
    • Future rates of global economic and population growth
    • Planned reduction in global carbon emissions
    • Exploitation of renewable energy sources

Natural Factors

  • Research has been conducted to see what the future changes to carbon stores may be with increasing carbon emissions

Future Changes to Carbon Stores

Terrestrial Carbon Sinks

Oceanic Carbon Sinks

Modelled to increase until 2050

When saturation is reached, they begin to act as sources:


  • Thawing of permafrost (tundra) in the Arctic
  • Shift of boreal forests to the north (as tundra thaws)
  • Tropical rainforests (currently at carbon capacity) may reduce their storage

Increased store in sea grasses and algae, but overall reduction as sink because:


  • Tropical oceans have decreased carbon dioxide solubility as they are becoming warmer so absorb less 
  • Decreased efficiency and slowing down of the biological pump

Human Factors

  • The IPCC has identified key factors driving anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

future-emissions-1-1

Drivers of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions

  • The top five countries that emit carbon dioxide are China, the USA, India, Japan and Russia

future-emissions-1

Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Country

  • China overtook the USA as a result of rapid urbanisation and industrialisation which indicates a positive relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions

Adaptation Strategies

Adaptation Strategies

  • Even if all carbon emissions stopped today, we would still have enhanced global warming due to past emissions and the length of time it takes for greenhouse gases to disperse from the atmosphere
  • There are two types of climate change adaptation strategies:
    • Hard strategies which require technology e.g., wind farms
    • Soft strategies which involve legislation e.g., land use zoning 
  • All adaptation strategies have benefits and risks associated with them

Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies

Adaptation Strategy

Benefits

Risks

Water conservation and management

Less resources used


Less groundwater abstraction


Changing attitudes e.g., use of more grey water

Efficiency and management cannot match any increases in demand for water


Promotion and enforcement of strategies by the government needed to change habits e.g., smart meters

Resilient agricultural systems

High-tech, drought-tolerant species help resistance to climate change and increased diseases


Low-tech methods and better practices lead to healthier soils which may help carbon sequestration and water storage e.g., selective irrigation, crop rotation, agroforestry


More ‘indoor’ intensive farming

Expensive technology, seeds and breeds unavailable to subsistence farmers in developing countries


Indoor and intensive farming has high energy costs


Genetic modification is still controversial but still used to create resistant strains of rich and soya


Increasing food insecurity leads to countries looking for quick fixes

Land-use planning

Land-use zoning, building restrictions in areas vulnerable to flooding


Enforcing strict run-off controls and soakaways

Public dislike


Abandoning high-risk areas is often impossible as they are often megacities


Would need strong governance, enforcement and compensation

Flood-risk management

Hard management often used e.g., river dredging, flood defences


Simple changes can reduce flood risk e.g., permeable tarmac


Reducing deforestation and increasing afforestation upstream to absorb water and reduce flood risk downstream

Funding sources are often debated


Land owners will often demand compensation


Constant maintenance is required for hard management e.g., dredging 

Solar radiation management

Geoengineering involves ideas and plans to intervene to counteract global warming


Idea to use orbiting satellites to reflect some radiation back into space like a giant sunshade which would cool the Earth within months and be relatively cheap compared to mitigation strategies

These are untried and untested


Would not eliminate the worst effects of greenhouse gases such as acidification


Involves messing with a very complex system which could have unintended consequences


Would need to continue geoengineering for decades or centuries as there would be a rapid adjustment in the climate system if it just stopped suddenly

Mitigation Strategies

Mitigation Strategies

  • Mitigation strategies can help rebalance the carbon cycle
  • Rebalancing the carbon cycle is seen as vital in preserving the Earth’s life systems
  • The IPCC stated in 2014 that it was possible to keep within the target of no more than a 2°C increase in average global temperatures if:
    • Fossil fuel use was significantly reduced
    • Fossil fuel use was totally eliminated by 2100
  • Mitigation strategies are considered vital to staying within the 2°C increase
  • Mitigation strategies usually operate through five specific methods:
    • Carbon taxation
    • Renewable switching
    • Energy efficiency
    • Afforestation
    • Carbon capture and storage (CCS)
  • The UK has led the way with many of these strategies but politics and austerity measures since 2011 has had an impact

Mitigation Strategies Used in the UK

Mitigation Strategy

Examples of Policies in the UK

Carbon taxation

Carbon price floor tax sets a minimum prices companies will have to pay to emit carbon dioxide which was unpopular and the policy was frozen in 2015


Lower road taxes for low-carbon cars were scrapped in 2015


In 2015, oil and gas exploration tax relief was expanded to support fossil fuels which led to the fracking debate

Renewable switching

Renewable energy (solar, wind and wave) provide intermittent electricity, while fossil fuels provide continuous power which is vital for our current demands


The Climate Change Levy, designed in 2001 to encourage investment in renewable energy was cut in 2015

Energy efficiency

The Green Deal scheme encouraged energy-saving improvements in homes e.g., energy efficient boilers and lights, improved insulation which was scrapped in 2015


Energy suppliers must comply with the Energy Company Obligation scheme to deliver energy efficient methods to households

Afforestation 

Tree planting in the UK is increasing which helps carbon sequestration


Tree planting involves the Forestry Commission, charities (e.g., the National Trust and Woodland Trust), landowners and local authorities,


The Big Tree Plant campaign encourages communities to plant 1 million new trees (mostly in urban areas)

Carbon capture and storage (CCS)

Few actual geologic carbon capture and storage projects exist in the world, despite its potential


Canada’s Boundary Dam is the only large-scale working scheme


In 2015, the UK cancelled its investment into full-scale projects at gas and coal powered plants in Scotland and Yorkshire

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Louise Stone

Author: Louise Stone

Louise graduated with a degree in Geography with Natural Hazards before doing her PGCE and Masters degree with the University of Birmingham. Teaching is her passion and has taught across different specifications at GCSE and A-Level. Louise has also been an examiner for two exam boards for 9 years now to gain a deeper insight into the different exams and expectations of students. Louise enjoys creating content to help students fulfil their potential in Geography.