Future Emissions
Future Uncertainties
- There are many uncertainties about future global warming and contributing natural and human factors
- Uncertainty about natural factors include:
- The role of carbon sinks and their capacity to cope with changes
- Possible feedback mechanisms such as carbon release from peatlands and permafrost
- Tipping points associated with forest dieback and the reversal of thermohaline circulation
- Uncertainty about human factors include:
- Future rates of global economic and population growth
- Planned reduction in global carbon emissions
- Exploitation of renewable energy sources
Natural Factors
- Research has been conducted to see what the future changes to carbon stores may be with increasing carbon emissions
Future Changes to Carbon Stores
Terrestrial Carbon Sinks |
Oceanic Carbon Sinks |
Modelled to increase until 2050 When saturation is reached, they begin to act as sources:
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Increased store in sea grasses and algae, but overall reduction as sink because:
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Human Factors
- The IPCC has identified key factors driving anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
Drivers of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions
- The top five countries that emit carbon dioxide are China, the USA, India, Japan and Russia
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Country
- China overtook the USA as a result of rapid urbanisation and industrialisation which indicates a positive relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions