Resource Futures (AQA A Level Geography)
Revision Note
The Future of Resource Supply & Demand
The challenge of supply and demand depends on a country’s attitude towards its future and include:
Business as usual - there is no issue, therefore, no change necessary
Technology - a belief that the market economy, privatisation and technology will solve any future issues
Values and lifestyle - these change over time through education, societal shifts and behavioural changes and international cooperation
The following factors will ultimately decide the future of resource production and use:
Technology
Economics
Environmental
Politics
Possible Supply and Demand Futures
Resource | Technological developments | Economic developments | Environmental developments | Political developments |
---|---|---|---|---|
Coal futures | Discovery of new resource frontiers / locations with better technology to accurately quantify size and quality Search and discovery of exploitable sources - predicted to be enough coal for 100 years of global demand New ‘cleaner’ coal technology - such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) – may prolong viability of coal and lower CO2 emissions | Requires little processing so will remain a low cost option Transported and used globally Hard for other energy sources to compete as coal is so economically viable | Known as a ‘dirty’ fuel on local, urban and global scales Linked to poor air quality in China so world’s biggest polluter is trying to switch to more renewable energy sources Encouragement of ‘clean’ coal technology (e.g. CCS) and coal gasification in attempt to reduce environmental impacts | Cost of coal may increase due to its environmental impact. The extent/impact of this may vary between countries depending on political will Governments attempting to find less damaging, low-cost energy sources Countries aiming to diversify energy mixes to safeguard domestic supplies and reduce reliance on imports E.g. Turkey favouring domestic coal over cheaper imported gas for energy security reasons |
Oil and gas futures | At the forefront of identifying new resource frontiers so that previous difficult to access reserves are becoming viable Offshore such as deepwater sources (e.g. Gulf of Mexico) Onshore such as fracking However economic viability depends on oil price being high | Now economically possible to extract from ‘low-density’ reserves (e.g. shale oil, tar sands) which have allowed USA and Canada to increase self-sufficiency E.g. USA oil reserves are healthy, primarily due to fracking) Gas and oil reserves will deplete further in the future making them less economically viable in the long-term | Development of fracking will depend on environmental consequences and what governments and societies are prepared to accept Impacts on USA populations: atmospheric, soil and water contamination, leading to local-level controversies Ireland, Scotland and Germany have banned fracking due to environmental risks - this may lead to others following | Likelihood of government subsidies to domestic energy companies to reduce reliance on foreign fuel imports Policies of ‘protectionism’ in the USA to secure supplies and cut out need for importing from politically unstable OPEC countries |
Nuclear futures | Some countries will find it hard to develop a nuclear sector without the help of TNCs as they may lack the technical expertise The prospect of harnessing the immense power of nuclear fusion is some way off but is the ‘holy grail’ that would change the sector forever | Increased costs of construction to ensure higher safety standards Early power stations (some built in the 1960s) are coming to end of lives – high cost of decommissioning ‘End of operation’ costs have been the reason for several contractors withdrawing support E.g. in Feb 2017, Toshiba withdrew from the new Moorside plant, Cumbria, UK, threatening it’s development | Nuclear produces consistent, large and reliable electricity supply without release of CO2 Issues with radiation from accidents, E.g. Chernobyl 1986, Fukushima 2011 Issues over nuclear waste storage has led to significant public doubt in countries with nuclear energy programmes | Chernobyl 1986 (Ukraine) – led to contamination of much of Europe due to nuclear fallout; very few stations built in the following decades Fukushima – all of Japan’s 50 reactors put offline following this; by mid-2017 only five had been brought back on line In Germany the government closed 8 out of 15 plants due to pubic protests about the safety of nuclear reactors May receive a resurgence of political support following Russia’s war in Europe |
Renewables futures | Renewable energy technology is advancing quickly Wind will gain growth as advances in turbine blades maximise energy produced Advances in photovoltaic technology are improving efficiency of solar energy, although storing the energy for long periods remains a problem | Wind requires industry subsidies to make it economically competitive with fossil fuels due to the high costs of production Solar is seeing the most extensive growth as costs and scale of production is increasing Biomass is only viable with government tax exemptions due to high storage and transport costs The economics of renewables make them more attractive as they become more efficient | Wind has several environmental issues to overcome, such as the impact on bird life and the visual landscape as well as on local house prices Solar works best when using unproductive land, such as in Morocco, where 100s of hectares of semi-desert is being developed into solar farms The continuing environmental issues of fossil fuels mean renewables will remain the environmentally friendly choice | Wind is more politically acceptable to public when offshore, particularly in densely populated countries like the UK Solar power can help governments meet demands in remote rural areas where any increase in energy will improve people’s quality of life Politicians are moving towards renewables as they become more efficient, environmentally friendly and sustainable |
Water futures | Large scale engineering developments helping to redirect water from areas of surplus to areas of deficit, E.g. China’s South-North project
Regional schemes to desalinate water E.g. Dead Sea project in Jordan)
Desalination is a huge growth area - traditional evaporation schemes are making way for more efficient but more expensive reverse osmosis technology, E.g. in Tampa Bay, Florida, where 25 million gallons of water is desalinated each day
| When water shortage is an issue, the structure of private companies often means that only those that can afford water receive it
E.g. in Peru and Bolivia, mining companies gain more share of water than rural communities
Access to water security is more about economic status and distribution than quantity of rainfall or rivers
Trading of water likely to become larger in scale as water becomes more desirable and valuable
| Increased use of water for agriculture and industry will continue to have large impacts on water quality and drainage – this means EIAs will become more important to ensure sustainability
‘Future-proofing’ river basin management strategies can help deal with these challenges
For e.g. ‘integrated basin management’ where all users involved in the decision making
LICs will look to learn from HICs mistakes in terms of water management to reduce negative environmental impacts
| Many analysts predict water to be the most likely cause of future international conflict
The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030) include the goals of ‘ensuring availability of water and sanitation for all’ and ‘safe management of water and waste chemicals’
Recycling of water likely to increase in importance
|
Mineral ore futures | Accessing mineral reserves in challenging environments will be aided by remote sensing using magnets, polarisation, GPS and 3D mapping
Developments in mining and processing are allowing poorer, lower grade reserves to be exploited
Decreased demand for specific mineral ores as a result of inventing substitutes or alternatives
For e.g. fibre optics is replacing copper for internet cabling and car body parts are being constructed from plastic rather than steel
| As minerals become increasingly expensive, alternative materials become more attractive - this is known as the ‘economics of substitution’
This decreases the demand for the original mineral, causing its price to fall
High prices will be required to bring new reserves into play that are more expensive to exploit
Metal prices likely to remain relatively high to encourage investment in technology and exploration that will in turn increase supply
| As the richest ores become exhausted, low-grade reserves are mined, requiring larger scale operations which cause more environmental damage, especially if open-cast methods are used
If mining moves to less accessible, resource frontier locations (e.g. rainforest or fragile cold environments) there is high potential for environmental damage
Mine restoration projects help regenerate areas, for e.g. the Eden Project, Cornwall, UK - a former clay mine
| Trade will continue to be dominated by large TNCs such as Rio Tinto
Mining operations take place in diverse regions, irrespective of political borders if they can secure operating licences
Political tensions where companies seek to extract minerals from Global Commons for e.g. the Arctic sea floor
Rare Earth Elements (REEs), used in cutting edge technologies, to become increasingly sought after and protected by governments
In 2010, China withheld exports of REEs but the USA complained to the World Trade Organisation and in 2015, China was ordered to lift export quotas |
Examiner Tip
Any question asking about the future of resource security is by definition a wide-open one and there is no right or wrong answer. No one can predict the future accurately, so it would be wise to answer the question giving a range of possible futures for energy, water and minerals and then to give your own opinion on what might happen in the future, using reasoning from some of the material you have studied.
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