Resource Futures (AQA A Level Geography)

Revision Note

The Future of Resource Supply & Demand

  • The challenge of supply and demand depends on a country’s attitude towards its future and include:

    • Business as usual - there is no issue, therefore, no change necessary

    • Technology - a belief that the market economy, privatisation and technology will solve any future issues

    • Values and lifestyle - these change over time through education, societal shifts and behavioural changes and international cooperation

  • The following factors will ultimately decide the future of resource production and use:

    • Technology

    • Economics

    • Environmental

    • Politics

Possible Supply and Demand Futures

Resource

Technological developments

Economic developments

Environmental developments

Political developments

Coal futures

Discovery of new resource frontiers / locations with better technology to accurately quantify size and quality


Search and discovery of exploitable sources - predicted to be enough coal for 100 years of global demand


New ‘cleaner’ coal technology - such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) – may prolong viability of coal and lower CO2 emissions

Requires little processing so will remain a low cost option


Transported and used globally


Hard for other energy sources to compete as coal is so economically viable

Known as a ‘dirty’ fuel on local, urban and global scales


Linked to poor air quality in China so world’s biggest polluter is trying to switch to more renewable energy sources


Encouragement of ‘clean’ coal technology (e.g. CCS) and coal gasification in attempt to reduce environmental impacts

Cost of coal may increase due to its environmental impact. The extent/impact of this may vary between countries depending on political will


Governments attempting to find less damaging, low-cost energy sources


Countries aiming to diversify energy mixes to safeguard domestic supplies and reduce reliance on imports


E.g. Turkey favouring domestic coal over cheaper imported gas for energy security reasons

Oil and gas futures

At the forefront of identifying new resource frontiers so that previous difficult to access reserves are becoming viable


Offshore such as deepwater sources (e.g. Gulf of Mexico)


Onshore such as fracking


However economic viability depends on oil price being high

Now economically possible to extract from ‘low-density’ reserves (e.g. shale oil, tar sands) which have allowed USA and Canada to increase self-sufficiency


E.g. USA oil reserves are healthy, primarily due to fracking)


Gas and oil reserves will deplete further in the future making them less economically viable in the long-term

Development of fracking will depend on environmental consequences and what governments and societies are prepared to accept


Impacts on USA populations: atmospheric, soil and water contamination, leading to local-level controversies


Ireland, Scotland and Germany have banned fracking due to environmental risks - this may lead to others following 

Likelihood of government subsidies to domestic energy companies to reduce reliance on foreign fuel imports


Policies of ‘protectionism’ in the USA to secure supplies and cut out need for importing from politically unstable OPEC countries

Nuclear futures

Some countries will find it hard to develop a nuclear sector without the help of TNCs as they may lack the technical expertise


The prospect of harnessing the immense power of nuclear fusion is some way off but is the ‘holy grail’ that would change the sector forever

Increased costs of construction to ensure higher safety standards


Early power stations (some built in the 1960s) are coming to end of lives – high cost of decommissioning


‘End of operation’ costs have been the reason for several contractors withdrawing support E.g. in Feb 2017, Toshiba withdrew from the new Moorside plant, Cumbria, UK, threatening it’s development

Nuclear produces consistent, large and reliable electricity supply without release of CO2 


Issues with radiation from accidents, E.g. Chernobyl 1986, Fukushima 2011 


Issues over nuclear waste storage has led to significant public doubt in countries with nuclear energy programmes

Chernobyl 1986 (Ukraine) – led to contamination of much of Europe due to nuclear fallout; very few stations built in the following decades


Fukushima – all of Japan’s 50 reactors put offline following this; by mid-2017 only five had been brought back on line


In Germany the government closed 8 out of 15 plants due to pubic protests about the safety of nuclear reactors


May receive a resurgence of political support following Russia’s war in Europe

Renewables futures

Renewable energy technology is advancing quickly  


Wind will gain growth as advances in turbine blades maximise energy produced


Advances in photovoltaic technology are improving efficiency of solar energy, although storing the energy for long periods remains a problem


Wind requires industry subsidies to make it economically competitive with fossil fuels due to the high costs of production


Solar is seeing the most extensive growth as costs and scale of production is increasing


Biomass is only viable with government tax exemptions due to high storage and transport costs


The economics of renewables make them more attractive as they become more efficient

Wind has several environmental issues to overcome, such as the impact on bird life and the visual landscape as well as on local house prices


Solar works best when using unproductive land, such as in Morocco, where 100s of hectares of semi-desert is being developed into solar farms


The continuing environmental issues of fossil fuels mean renewables will remain the environmentally friendly choice

Wind is more politically acceptable to public when offshore, particularly in densely populated countries like the UK


Solar power can help governments meet demands in remote rural areas where any increase in energy will improve people’s quality of life


Politicians are moving towards renewables as they become more efficient, environmentally friendly and sustainable

Water futures

Large scale engineering developments helping to redirect water from areas of surplus to areas of deficit, E.g. China’s South-North project

 

Regional schemes to desalinate water E.g. Dead Sea project in Jordan)

 

Desalination is a huge growth area - traditional evaporation schemes are making way for more efficient but more expensive reverse osmosis technology, E.g. in Tampa Bay, Florida, where 25 million gallons of water is desalinated each day

 

When water shortage is an issue, the structure of private companies often means that only those that can afford water receive it

 

E.g. in Peru and Bolivia, mining companies gain more share of water than rural communities

 

Access to water security is more about economic status and distribution than quantity of rainfall or rivers

 

Trading of water likely to become larger in scale as water becomes more desirable and valuable

 

Increased use of water for agriculture and industry will continue to have large impacts on water quality and drainage – this means EIAs will become more important to ensure sustainability

 

‘Future-proofing’ river basin management strategies can help deal with these challenges

 

For e.g. ‘integrated basin management’ where all users involved in the decision making

 

LICs will look to  learn from HICs mistakes in terms of water management to reduce negative environmental impacts

 

Many analysts predict water to be the most likely cause of future international conflict 

 

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030) include the goals of ‘ensuring availability of water and sanitation for all’ and ‘safe management of water and waste chemicals’

 

Recycling of water likely to increase in importance

 

Mineral ore futures

Accessing mineral reserves in challenging environments will be aided by remote sensing using magnets, polarisation, GPS and 3D mapping

 

Developments in mining and processing are allowing poorer, lower grade reserves to be exploited

 

Decreased demand for specific mineral ores as a result of inventing substitutes or alternatives

 

For e.g. fibre optics is replacing copper for internet cabling and car body parts are being constructed from plastic rather than steel

 

As minerals become increasingly expensive, alternative materials become more attractive - this is known as the ‘economics of substitution’

 

This decreases the demand for the original mineral, causing its price to fall

 

High prices will be required to bring new reserves into play that are more expensive to exploit

 

Metal prices likely to remain relatively high to encourage investment in technology and exploration that will in turn increase supply

 

As the richest ores become exhausted, low-grade reserves are mined, requiring larger scale operations which cause more environmental damage, especially  if open-cast methods are used

 

If mining moves to less accessible, resource frontier locations (e.g. rainforest or fragile cold environments) there is high potential for environmental damage

 

Mine restoration projects help regenerate areas, for e.g. the Eden Project, Cornwall, UK - a former clay mine

 

Trade will continue to be dominated by large TNCs such as Rio Tinto

 

Mining operations take place in diverse regions, irrespective of political borders if they can secure operating licences

 

Political tensions where companies seek to extract minerals from Global Commons for e.g. the Arctic sea floor

 

Rare Earth Elements (REEs), used in cutting edge technologies, to become increasingly sought after and protected by governments

 

In 2010, China withheld exports of REEs but the USA complained to the World Trade Organisation and in 2015, China was ordered to lift export quotas

Examiner Tip

Any question asking about the future of resource security is by definition a wide-open one and there is no right or wrong answer. No one can predict the future accurately, so it would be wise to answer the question giving a range of possible futures for energy, water and minerals and then to give your own opinion on what might happen in the future, using reasoning from some of the material you have studied.

Last updated:

You've read 0 of your 10 free revision notes

Unlock more, it's free!

Join the 100,000+ Students that ❤️ Save My Exams

the (exam) results speak for themselves:

Did this page help you?

Robin Martin-Jenkins

Author: Robin Martin-Jenkins

Expertise: Geography Content Creator

Robin has taught Geography at a number of UK secondary schools over the past 13 years, alongside various pastoral roles. He fell in love with Geography whilst at school and has been a passionate advocate of its importance and relevance ever since. He currently works in an independent secondary school where his teaching is combined with mentoring of younger teachers.

Bridgette Barrett

Author: Bridgette Barrett

Expertise: Geography Lead

After graduating with a degree in Geography, Bridgette completed a PGCE over 25 years ago. She later gained an MA Learning, Technology and Education from the University of Nottingham focussing on online learning. At a time when the study of geography has never been more important, Bridgette is passionate about creating content which supports students in achieving their potential in geography and builds their confidence.