Force Field Analysis and Scenario Planning (Cambridge (CIE) A Level Business): Revision Note

Force field analysis

• Force field analysis involves managers identifying the driving and restraining forces that surround a strategic change decision

  • Once identified these forces can be analysed to determine whether a decision should go ahead

Driving forces

• Driving forces are factors that could justify that strategic change is needed

  • Internal driving forces may include:

    • Outdated machinery or product lines

    • Declining team morale

    • The need to increase profitability

  • External driving forces may include:

    • A volatile market

    • Disruptive technologies e.g. AI

    • Changing demographic trends

Restraining forces

• Retraining forces are factors that could prevent or limit change

  • Internal restraining forces may include:

    • Fear of the unknown

    • The existing organisational structure

    • "That's not how things are done here" attitudes

  • External restraining forces may include:

    • Existing commitments to partner organisations

    • Government legislation

    • Obligations towards customers

Weighting the forces

• Driving forces and restraining forces are weighted from 1 to 5 in terms of their relative importance

  • A value of 5 is most important and 1 least important

Example force field analysis

• In this case, four driving forces justify a decision for change

  • Their weightings are 5, 4, 3 and 2

  • The total value of these driving forces is 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 = 14

• In this case, four restraining forces prevent or limit change

  • Their weightings are 4, 3, 2 and 1

  • The total value of these restraining forces is 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 10

• The relative weight of driving forces is greater than the relative weight of restraining forces

  • There is a good chance that this decision would be successful

  • To maximise the chance of success, driving forces could be strengthened or restraining forces weakened or eliminated 

Evaluating force field analysis

• Force field analysis is a valuable technique for assessing the factors influencing a situation

• However it has limitations, particularly in situations where precision is required

• It is most effective when used alongside other decision-making tools to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the situation

Scenario planning

• Scenario planning is used to prepare for different possible futures

  • Rather than predicting exactly what will happen, a company imagines several plausible “what‐if” situations

    • E.g. a sudden change in the law, a new competitor entering the market or rapid shifts in customer tastes

  • Leaders can spot early warning signs and act before problems or opportunities become urgent.

• It involves asking a series of linked questions

Scenario planning questions

The benefits of scenario planning

• Helps avoid surprises

  • Rather than being caught off‐guard, the company has thought through several possibilities in advance and may, therefore, have something of a plan

• Focuses on flexibility

  • Instead of committing to one rigid plan, the firm builds capabilities, such as adaptable suppliers or skills training that help in multiple different futures

• Improves decision‐making

  • Teams practice 'if‐then' thinking, such as 'If oil prices double, then we switch to electric vehicles in our fleet'

  • This makes real choices easier when change happens