The Modelling Cycle (AQA Level 3 Mathematical Studies (Core Maths)): Revision Note
Exam code: 1350
The Modelling Cycle
What is the modelling cycle?
The modelling cycle is the general process by which mathematical models of real life scenarios are created, used, and refined

For example, consider planning a construction project
Assumptions can be made about:
The number of workers
Working hours
Pay rates
How long each section of the project should take
Appropriate mathematical techniques can then be used to carry out calculations using proportion and estimation to find:
Total cost
Estimated completion time
The results can then be interpreted
E.g. Does the model suggest more workers are needed to finish on time?
After the project is completed, the model can be evaluated
Were the assumptions, and any simplifications made, sensible?
Was there a factor that had more impact than expected?
How could the model be made more accurate for next time?
As the model is refined after each 'loop' of the modelling cycle, the model will become more accurate
Representing a Situation Mathematically
How detailed should a mathematical model be?
There are far too many factors and variables in real life to be able to model them all precisely
A mathematical model has to be practical and easy to use, as well as accurate
Some factors will have a large impact, whilst others will have a smaller impact
Choosing which factors to include, and which to simplify or ignore, will depend on the purpose of the model
Consider creating a model for a car covering a distance of 200 miles
A model for a family going on holiday would have very different requirements and levels of detail compared to a model for a Formula 1 team
What do I need to consider when representing a situation mathematically?
This will depend on the context and requirements of the model, but in general:
Which factors are essential?
Which factors can be simplified?
Which factors can be ignored?
How precise and how accurate do the values need to be?
Worked Example
Christopher is estimating how many trees are in a wood near where he lives.
Describe how he might work out an estimate for the number of trees in the wood.
Essential factors:
Size (area) of the wood
How densely the trees are packed in
Simplified factors:
Assume the density of trees is the same throughout the wood
Assume a rough shape for the wood, e.g. a circular or a rectangular area
Ignore:
Different densities of trees in different areas (due to different species etc.)
Technicalities about what counts as a "tree" and what does not
Rounding:
Depending on size of wood, nearest hundred or nearest thousand is probably appropriate
Christopher could use an online mapping tool to view the general shape of the wood, and approximate it to a simple shape such as a circle, rectangle, or triangle. He could then use the scale shown on the online mapping tool to calculate the area of the wood.
Go to a section of the wood in-person and take a sample of the density of trees. For example, count how many trees are there in a 10 m × 10 m square. Use this density, and the calculated area, to estimate the number of trees in the wood.
Selecting Appropriate Mathematical Techniques
How do I convert a scenario into mathematical operations?
Once a scenario has been simplified appropriately, mathematical calculations can be carried out to reach an answer or output
You need to understand the underlying mechanisms of the problem, to ensure you select the correct mathematical techniques
For example:
If the problem is related to finance
Is it simple or compound interest?
Is interest calculated before or after monthly payments?
If it is a proportion problem
Is it directly proportional or inversely proportional?
Is variable x proportional to y, or the square, or cube of y?
Are there limits or conditions on the variables?
There may be a maximum number of hours a person can work for
There may be a minimum number of products to be kept in stock
A container has a maximum capacity
A population cannot be a negative value
Worked Example
Omar has a model truck. It is a 1:76 scale replica of a real truck.
Omar finds that he can fit around 100 of his marbles, which are spheres with a diameter of 1 to 2 cm, into the trailer of the model truck.
Find an estimate for the volume of the trailer for the real truck, to the nearest ten thousand litres.
The key pieces of mathematical understanding required here are:
Finding the volume of a sphere;
Relating a linear scale factor to a volume scale factor; the volume scale factor is the cube of the linear scale factor
Converting between cm3 and litres; there are 1000 cm3 in 1 litre
Find the volume of a marble, assume the diameter is in the middle of the range, so the radius will be around 0.75 cm
Volume of a marble =
Round to 1.77 cm3 for ease of calculation; we only need an estimate
Find total volume of the model truck's trailer
1.77 cm3 × 100 marbles = 177 cm3
The linear scale factor is 76, as the model uses a 1:76 scale
Therefore the volume scale factor will be 763
763 × 177 cm3 = 77 698 752 cm3
Convert to litres by dividing by 1000
77 698 752 cm3 ÷ 1000 = 77 698.752 litres
Round to the nearest ten thousand litres
80 000 litres
Interpreting Results in Context
How do I interpret the results from a mathematical model?
Once the calculations for a model have been carried out, the results must be interpreted in the context of the original problem
When interpreting the results of a model, you should:
Relate the outcome of the calculations back to the original scenario
Consider any extra constraints that haven't been taken into account already
E.g. The answer must be an integer number of items or people
Consider any real-world practical implications
E.g. The answer may suggest buying large volumes of food at once to save money
In reality this may not be sensible, as the food may go off
If asked to, give advice or recommendations based on the results
This will also require knowledge of the specific scenario and the purpose of creating the model
Worked Example
Nell is painting several rooms of her house. The total surface area she is planning to paint has been previously calculated to be 148 m2.
The paint that Nell is using requires 2 coats.
It is sold in tins of either 2.5 litres for £22, or 5 litres for £34.
There is also a "buy 4, get the 5th half price" special offer on the 5 litre tins of paint.
The paint states it covers up to 14 m2 per litre.
Calculate the minimum cost for the tins of paint that Nell needs to buy.
Calculate the total surface area to be covered
148 m2 × 2 coats = 296 m2
Divide this by the coverage to find the volume of paint required
296 m2 ÷ 14 m2 per litre = 21.14... litres
The paint is only sold in 2.5 litre or 5 litre tins, so round upwards to nearest 0.5 litres
This step is an example of interpreting a result in context
21.5 litres of paint required
Consider if it is cheaper to purchase 2.5 litre or 5 litre tins
2.5 litres for £22 = £8.80 per litre
£34 for 5 litres = £6.80 per litre
So minimise the number of 2.5 litre tins bought, as they are more expensive
21.5 litres = (4×5 litres) + 1.5 litres
So purchase 4 × 5 litre tins, and 1 × 2.5 litre tin
Total cost = (4 × £34) + £22 = £158
However, using the extra context given in the problem about the special offer:
"buy 4, get the 5th half price" on all 5 litre tins
So it would be cheaper to purchase a half-price 5 litre tin, than a single 2.5 litre tin
Total cost = (4 × £34) + (0.5 × £34) = £153
£153
Worked Example
Ruben is an ice-cream seller. He estimates that he sells around 50 ice creams per day over the course of one 100-day season. The ice creams are each estimated to be 100 ml per serving.
Ruben is visiting his supplier before the season begins to purchase the ice-cream he needs.
He wants to purchase as much as possible in one transaction as the supplier offers a discount proportional to the volume of ice-creams purchased. It is sold in 12 litre containers.
(a) Advise Ruben on how many containers of ice-cream he should purchase from his supplier.
Find the total volume sold over the season
50 ice creams per day × 100 days × 100 ml = 500 000 ml
Convert to litres
500 000 ÷ 1000 = 500 litres
Find the number of containers
500 ÷ 12 = 41.666...
Round up, as requires an integer number of containers
Ruben should buy 42 containers of ice-cream for the season
(b) Suggest a reason why buying all of the ice cream at once might not be a good idea.
It is a very large volume of ice cream, and Ruben would need somewhere to store it all which may not be practical
As it is ice-cream, it will require freezing too, which will cost money as energy is required
Evaluating Methods & Solutions
How do I evaluate a mathematical model?
The final step of the modelling cycle is to evaluate the model
This may involve comparing it with real-life results
You should consider:
Were the assumptions and simplifications sensible?
What effect did each assumption have?
Were the mathematical techniques and operations used appropriate?
How accurate was the solution compared to real life?
After evaluating the model, it can be improved
The modelling cycle can then be followed through again
After each 'loop' of the cycle, the model will become more accurate
Worked Example
Monique is calculating how many moving boxes will fit in the back of her removals van.
The storage area of the van is 4.2 m long, 2.1 m wide, and 2.2 m high.
The moving boxes each measure 50 cm in length and are cube-shaped.
Monique does the following calculations:
Volume of moving box: 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.125 m3
Volume of van: 4.2 × 2.1 × 2.2 = 19.404 m3
Number of boxes per van: 19.404 ÷ 0.125 = 155.232
Therefore 156 boxes will fit in the van
(a) Evaluate Monique's method and answer.
Work through each step of the method and check the techniques chosen are appropriate, and the calculations have been performed correctly
The volume of the moving boxes and the van have both been calculated correctly
Consider any real-life restrictions which have, or have not been, included
When calculating the number of boxes per van, the answer has been rounded up rather than down
As only an integer number of boxes is valid, the answer using this method should be 155 instead
Consider any restrictions which have not been taken into account, or incorrect assumptions
State the effect these have on the answer
The real dimensions of the boxes have not been taken into account
As the boxes must remain in the same dimensions, and half-boxes or similar cannot be used to fill in gaps, this limits the number of boxes that will fit in the van
This has led to an overestimate
(b) Make one improvement to the model and find a new estimate.
The moving boxes measure 0.5 m in length, width and height, and we can take this into account when finding how many will physically fit in the van
Considering the length of the van
4.2 ÷ 0.5 = 8.4 boxes, so 8 boxes maximum
Considering the width of the van
2.1 ÷ 0.5 = 4.2 boxes, so 4 boxes maximum
Considering the height of the van
2.2 ÷ 0.5 = 4.4 boxes, so 4 boxes maximum
Find the total number of boxes
8 × 4 × 4 = 128
128 boxes
(c) Moving boxes are sometimes too heavy to be stacked on top of one another. What effect does this have on the number of boxes able to fit inside the van?
The number of boxes would reduce, as the previous solution relied on 4 boxes being stacked on top of one another
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