The Modelling Cycle (AQA Level 3 Mathematical Studies (Core Maths)): Revision Note

Exam code: 1350

Jamie Wood

Written by: Jamie Wood

Reviewed by: Dan Finlay

Updated on

The Modelling Cycle

What is the modelling cycle?

  • The modelling cycle is the general process by which mathematical models of real life scenarios are created, used, and refined

The Modelling Cycle: Represent a scenario mathematically, Make assumptions and simplify, Use appropriate mathematical techniques, Interpret the results in context, Evaluate the methods and solutions by comparing to real life, Consider the assumptions made
  • For example, consider planning a construction project

    • Assumptions can be made about:

      • The number of workers

      • Working hours

      • Pay rates

      • How long each section of the project should take

    • Appropriate mathematical techniques can then be used to carry out calculations using proportion and estimation to find:

      • Total cost

      • Estimated completion time

    • The results can then be interpreted

      • E.g. Does the model suggest more workers are needed to finish on time?

    • After the project is completed, the model can be evaluated

      • Were the assumptions, and any simplifications made, sensible?

      • Was there a factor that had more impact than expected?

      • How could the model be made more accurate for next time?

    • As the model is refined after each 'loop' of the modelling cycle, the model will become more accurate

Representing a Situation Mathematically

How detailed should a mathematical model be?

  • There are far too many factors and variables in real life to be able to model them all precisely

  • A mathematical model has to be practical and easy to use, as well as accurate

  • Some factors will have a large impact, whilst others will have a smaller impact

    • Choosing which factors to include, and which to simplify or ignore, will depend on the purpose of the model

  • Consider creating a model for a car covering a distance of 200 miles

    • A model for a family going on holiday would have very different requirements and levels of detail compared to a model for a Formula 1 team

What do I need to consider when representing a situation mathematically?

  • This will depend on the context and requirements of the model, but in general:

    • Which factors are essential?

    • Which factors can be simplified?

    • Which factors can be ignored?

    • How precise and how accurate do the values need to be?

Worked Example

Christopher is estimating how many trees are in a wood near where he lives.

Describe how he might work out an estimate for the number of trees in the wood.

Essential factors:
Size (area) of the wood
How densely the trees are packed in

Simplified factors:
Assume the density of trees is the same throughout the wood
Assume a rough shape for the wood, e.g. a circular or a rectangular area

Ignore:
Different densities of trees in different areas (due to different species etc.)
Technicalities about what counts as a "tree" and what does not

Rounding:
Depending on size of wood, nearest hundred or nearest thousand is probably appropriate

Christopher could use an online mapping tool to view the general shape of the wood, and approximate it to a simple shape such as a circle, rectangle, or triangle. He could then use the scale shown on the online mapping tool to calculate the area of the wood.

Go to a section of the wood in-person and take a sample of the density of trees. For example, count how many trees are there in a 10 m × 10 m square. Use this density, and the calculated area, to estimate the number of trees in the wood.

Selecting Appropriate Mathematical Techniques

How do I convert a scenario into mathematical operations?

  • Once a scenario has been simplified appropriately, mathematical calculations can be carried out to reach an answer or output

  • You need to understand the underlying mechanisms of the problem, to ensure you select the correct mathematical techniques

  • For example:

    • If the problem is related to finance

      • Is it simple or compound interest?

      • Is interest calculated before or after monthly payments?

    • If it is a proportion problem

      • Is it directly proportional or inversely proportional?

      • Is variable x proportional to y, or the square, or cube of y?

    • Are there limits or conditions on the variables?

      • There may be a maximum number of hours a person can work for

      • There may be a minimum number of products to be kept in stock

      • A container has a maximum capacity

      • A population cannot be a negative value

Worked Example

Omar has a model truck. It is a 1:76 scale replica of a real truck.
Omar finds that he can fit around 100 of his marbles, which are spheres with a diameter of 1 to 2 cm, into the trailer of the model truck.

Find an estimate for the volume of the trailer for the real truck, to the nearest ten thousand litres.

The key pieces of mathematical understanding required here are:

  • Finding the volume of a sphere; V equals 4 over 3 pi space r cubed

  • Relating a linear scale factor to a volume scale factor; the volume scale factor is the cube of the linear scale factor

  • Converting between cm3 and litres; there are 1000 cm3 in 1 litre

Find the volume of a marble, assume the diameter is in the middle of the range, so the radius will be around 0.75 cm

Volume of a marble = 4 over 3 cross times pi cross times 0.75 cubed equals 1.7671... space cm cubed

Round to 1.77 cm3 for ease of calculation; we only need an estimate

Find total volume of the model truck's trailer

1.77 cm3 × 100 marbles = 177 cm3

The linear scale factor is 76, as the model uses a 1:76 scale
Therefore the volume scale factor will be 763

763 × 177 cm3 = 77 698 752 cm3

Convert to litres by dividing by 1000

77 698 752 cm3 ÷ 1000 = 77 698.752 litres

Round to the nearest ten thousand litres

80 000 litres

Interpreting Results in Context

How do I interpret the results from a mathematical model?

  • Once the calculations for a model have been carried out, the results must be interpreted in the context of the original problem

  • When interpreting the results of a model, you should:

    • Relate the outcome of the calculations back to the original scenario

      • Consider any extra constraints that haven't been taken into account already

        • E.g. The answer must be an integer number of items or people

      • Consider any real-world practical implications

        • E.g. The answer may suggest buying large volumes of food at once to save money

        • In reality this may not be sensible, as the food may go off

    • If asked to, give advice or recommendations based on the results

      • This will also require knowledge of the specific scenario and the purpose of creating the model

Worked Example

Nell is painting several rooms of her house. The total surface area she is planning to paint has been previously calculated to be 148 m2.

The paint that Nell is using requires 2 coats.
It is sold in tins of either 2.5 litres for £22, or 5 litres for £34.
There is also a "buy 4, get the 5th half price" special offer on the 5 litre tins of paint.
The paint states it covers up to 14 m2 per litre.

Calculate the minimum cost for the tins of paint that Nell needs to buy.

Calculate the total surface area to be covered

148 m2 × 2 coats = 296 m2

Divide this by the coverage to find the volume of paint required

296 m2 ÷ 14 m2 per litre = 21.14... litres

The paint is only sold in 2.5 litre or 5 litre tins, so round upwards to nearest 0.5 litres
This step is an example of interpreting a result in context

21.5 litres of paint required

Consider if it is cheaper to purchase 2.5 litre or 5 litre tins

2.5 litres for £22 = £8.80 per litre
£34 for 5 litres = £6.80 per litre

So minimise the number of 2.5 litre tins bought, as they are more expensive

21.5 litres = (4×5 litres) + 1.5 litres

So purchase 4 × 5 litre tins, and 1 × 2.5 litre tin

Total cost = (4 × £34) + £22 = £158

However, using the extra context given in the problem about the special offer:
"buy 4, get the 5th half price" on all 5 litre tins

So it would be cheaper to purchase a half-price 5 litre tin, than a single 2.5 litre tin

Total cost = (4 × £34) + (0.5 × £34) = £153

£153

Worked Example

Ruben is an ice-cream seller. He estimates that he sells around 50 ice creams per day over the course of one 100-day season. The ice creams are each estimated to be 100 ml per serving.

Ruben is visiting his supplier before the season begins to purchase the ice-cream he needs.

He wants to purchase as much as possible in one transaction as the supplier offers a discount proportional to the volume of ice-creams purchased. It is sold in 12 litre containers.

(a) Advise Ruben on how many containers of ice-cream he should purchase from his supplier.

Find the total volume sold over the season

50 ice creams per day × 100 days × 100 ml = 500 000 ml

Convert to litres

500 000 ÷ 1000 = 500 litres

Find the number of containers

500 ÷ 12 = 41.666...

Round up, as requires an integer number of containers

Ruben should buy 42 containers of ice-cream for the season

(b) Suggest a reason why buying all of the ice cream at once might not be a good idea.

It is a very large volume of ice cream, and Ruben would need somewhere to store it all which may not be practical

As it is ice-cream, it will require freezing too, which will cost money as energy is required

Evaluating Methods & Solutions

How do I evaluate a mathematical model?

  • The final step of the modelling cycle is to evaluate the model

    • This may involve comparing it with real-life results

  • You should consider:

    • Were the assumptions and simplifications sensible?

      • What effect did each assumption have?

    • Were the mathematical techniques and operations used appropriate?

    • How accurate was the solution compared to real life?

  • After evaluating the model, it can be improved

    • The modelling cycle can then be followed through again

    • After each 'loop' of the cycle, the model will become more accurate

Worked Example

Monique is calculating how many moving boxes will fit in the back of her removals van.

The storage area of the van is 4.2 m long, 2.1 m wide, and 2.2 m high.

The moving boxes each measure 50 cm in length and are cube-shaped.

Monique does the following calculations:

Volume of moving box: 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.125 m3

Volume of van: 4.2 × 2.1 × 2.2 = 19.404 m3

Number of boxes per van: 19.404 ÷ 0.125 = 155.232

Therefore 156 boxes will fit in the van

(a) Evaluate Monique's method and answer.

Work through each step of the method and check the techniques chosen are appropriate, and the calculations have been performed correctly

The volume of the moving boxes and the van have both been calculated correctly

Consider any real-life restrictions which have, or have not been, included

When calculating the number of boxes per van, the answer has been rounded up rather than down

As only an integer number of boxes is valid, the answer using this method should be 155 instead

Consider any restrictions which have not been taken into account, or incorrect assumptions
State the effect these have on the answer

The real dimensions of the boxes have not been taken into account

As the boxes must remain in the same dimensions, and half-boxes or similar cannot be used to fill in gaps, this limits the number of boxes that will fit in the van

This has led to an overestimate

(b) Make one improvement to the model and find a new estimate.

The moving boxes measure 0.5 m in length, width and height, and we can take this into account when finding how many will physically fit in the van

Considering the length of the van
4.2 ÷ 0.5 = 8.4 boxes, so 8 boxes maximum

Considering the width of the van
2.1 ÷ 0.5 = 4.2 boxes, so 4 boxes maximum

Considering the height of the van
2.2 ÷ 0.5 = 4.4 boxes, so 4 boxes maximum

Find the total number of boxes

8 × 4 × 4 = 128

128 boxes

(c) Moving boxes are sometimes too heavy to be stacked on top of one another. What effect does this have on the number of boxes able to fit inside the van?

The number of boxes would reduce, as the previous solution relied on 4 boxes being stacked on top of one another

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Jamie Wood

Author: Jamie Wood

Expertise: Maths Content Creator

Jamie graduated in 2014 from the University of Bristol with a degree in Electronic and Communications Engineering. He has worked as a teacher for 8 years, in secondary schools and in further education; teaching GCSE and A Level. He is passionate about helping students fulfil their potential through easy-to-use resources and high-quality questions and solutions.

Dan Finlay

Reviewer: Dan Finlay

Expertise: Maths Subject Lead

Dan graduated from the University of Oxford with a First class degree in mathematics. As well as teaching maths for over 8 years, Dan has marked a range of exams for Edexcel, tutored students and taught A Level Accounting. Dan has a keen interest in statistics and probability and their real-life applications.