Total Fertility Rate (College Board AP® Environmental Science): Study Guide

Factors affecting total fertility rate

What is the total fertility rate?

• Total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime in a specific population

  • TFR is a key indicator of population growth and demographic trends

Factors influencing TFR

Age at first childbirth

• The age at which females have their first child significantly impacts TFR

• Earlier childbearing generally increases the likelihood of having more children

  • Example: In countries with high TFR, such as Niger, females often have their first child in their late teens due to cultural norms

• Delayed childbirth, often linked to education and career opportunities, reduces TFR

Educational opportunities for females

• Increased access to education for women is strongly linked with lower TFR

• Educated women tend to:

  • Marry later and delay childbearing

  • Have fewer children due to better knowledge of family planning and career aspirations

• Example: Countries like Japan and South Korea have lower TFR due to high female education levels

Access to family planning

• Availability and accessibility of contraception and reproductive health services allow women to control the number and timing of their children

• Family planning:

  • Reduces unintended pregnancies

  • Empowers women to make informed choices about reproduction

Government acts and policies

• Policies encouraging or discouraging childbirth directly impact TFR

• Examples:

  • Pro-natalist policies: Incentivize childbirth through benefits like tax breaks and parental leave (e.g., France and Hungary)

  • Anti-natalist policies: Aim to reduce TFR through measures like the one-child policy in China (now phased out but historically effective in lowering TFR)

Declining global fertility rates

• Generally, as health improves, the mortality rate in the population decreases, and typically there is an accelerated population growth

• However, fertility levels have been falling faster than expected:

  • The global average for total fertility rate is around 2.3 children per woman today

  • Yet 50 years ago, the global fertility rate was double, with rates of 4.5 to 7 children per woman across the globe

• Since then, LICs and MICs have seen rapid falls in fertility, partly due to:

  • Increased status and well-being of children

  • Empowerment of women within society and relationships through strengthening:

    • Access to education

    • Recognition and participation in the labour force

    • Improved women's rights

Population stability at replacement-level fertility rates

What is replacement-level fertility?

• Replacement-level fertility refers to the total fertility rate (TFR) required for a population to replace itself without growth or decline

  • Typically, this rate is around 2.1 children per woman in developed countries

  • The 0.1 above 2 accounts for infant and child mortality, ensuring enough children survive to adulthood

Population stability at replacement levels

• When a population’s fertility rate is at replacement level, it is considered relatively stable

  • Stable population: Birth rates and death rates are balanced, leading to minimal long-term changes in population size

  • Example: Many developed nations, such as the United States, maintain populations near replacement-level fertility due to access to healthcare and family planning

• Factors influencing stability at replacement level:

  • Immigration and emigration: Even at replacement fertility, migration can cause population fluctuations

  • Mortality rates: High mortality in specific age groups can affect whether replacement fertility ensures stability

Implications of replacement-level fertility

• Social and economic benefits:

  • Prevents rapid population growth that strains resources and infrastructure

  • Avoids population decline that can lead to labor shortages and economic decline

Factors affecting infant mortality rates

What is the infant mortality rate?

• Infant mortality rate (IMR) refers to the number of deaths of infants under one year of age per 1,000 live births in a given year

  • IMR is a key indicator of a population's overall health and socioeconomic conditions

Factors influencing infant mortality rates

Access to healthcare

• Availability and quality of maternal and infant healthcare play a significant role in reducing IMR

  • Access to prenatal care ensures mothers receive medical support during pregnancy

  • Availability of skilled healthcare professionals during childbirth reduces complications

Nutrition and food security

• Adequate nutrition for both mothers and infants is essential for healthy development

  • Malnourished mothers are more likely to experience complications during pregnancy and childbirth

  • Breastfeeding provides infants with vital nutrients and immunity against diseases

Socioeconomic factors

• Education of mothers:

  • Educated mothers are more likely to have knowledge of proper healthcare and nutrition

• Income levels:

  • Families with higher incomes can afford better healthcare, sanitation, and nutrition

Sanitation and clean water

• Poor sanitation and lack of access to clean water increase the risk of waterborne diseases like diarrhea, a leading cause of infant deaths

Vaccination programs

• Immunization protects infants from preventable diseases like measles, polio, and pneumonia

  • Countries with widespread vaccination programs experience significant reductions in IMR

Changes over time

• Changes in these factors leads to changes in infant mortality rates over time

• For example, improvements in healthcare, education, and sanitation have led to significant declines in IMR globally

  • Example: IMR in the United States decreased from over 20 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1970 to around 5.4 in 2020