Demographic Transition (College Board AP® Environmental Science): Study Guide

Demographic transition model

What is the demographic transition?

• The demographic transition is the shift from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates as a country develops economically

  • This transition is illustrated through the demographic transition model (DTM)

  • This model originally consisted of four stages and was based on the development of the UK

    • A fifth stage has been added to a more recent version of the model

Stages of the demographic transition model

Stage 1: Pre-industrial society (high stationary)

• High birth rates due to lack of contraception and high infant mortality

• High death rates due to disease, poor medical care, and food shortages

• Population growth is slow because birth and death rates are both high

• Example: No modern countries are in this stage, but some remote tribal societies may exhibit these characteristics

Stage 2: Early industrialization (early expanding)

• Death rates decline due to improvements in medicine, sanitation, and food supply

• Birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population growth

• Agricultural advancements increase food availability

• Example: Many developing countries, such as Niger, are in this stage

Stage 3: Mature industrialization (late expanding)

• Death rates remain low

• Birth rates begin to decline due to increased access to contraception, urbanization, and improved women’s education, leading to slowing population growth

• Economic changes shift societal focus from agricultural-to-industrial-based economies

• Example: Countries like Mexico and India are in this stage

Stage 4: Post-industrial society (low stationary)

• Both birth and death rates are low, leading to population stabilization

• Higher living standards and economic stability contribute to low fertility rates

• Aging populations may emerge due to lower birth rates

• Example: The United States and most European nations are in this stage

Stage 5: Sub-replacement fertility (declining)

• Birth rates drop below death rates, leading to population decline

• Aging population and low fertility rates create economic and social challenges

• Example: Japan and some Eastern European countries are experiencing this stage

Age structure diagrams at different stages of the demographic transition model

• Age structure diagrams for countries change over time

  • They show a country's population structure at one point in time

  • The shape of the diagram changes as a country moves through the stages of the demographic transition model

Characteristics of developing countries

Key characteristics of developing countries

Higher infant mortality rates

• Limited access to healthcare, nutrition, and sanitation leads to increased infant deaths

• Example: Countries with weak healthcare systems, such as Chad, experience high infant mortality

More children in the workforce

• Economic necessity, where families rely on children's labor for survival due to financial hardship, forces many children to work instead of attending school

• Example: In some developing nations, children work in agriculture or informal labor markets

Lower literacy rates

• Limited access to education, particularly for women, affects literacy levels

• Example: Countries like Afghanistan have lower literacy rates due to barriers to education

Agriculture-based economies

• Many developing nations rely on subsistence farming rather than industrial production

• Example: A large percentage of the population in Ethiopia is engaged in agriculture

Limited infrastructure

• Many developing countries lack clean water, reliable electricity, and modern sanitation

• Example: Rural areas in countries like Haiti struggle with inadequate infrastructure