Are Predicted Papers Accurate? What Students Need to Know

If you’ve ever wondered whether predicted papers are a reliable way to revise, or if they actually reflect real exam questions, you’re not alone. Many GCSE and A Level students turn to predicted papers hoping to get a glimpse into what might appear in their final exams. But how accurate are they really? And are they a reliable revision tool? 

This guide breaks down how predicted papers are created, how accurate they tend to be, and most importantly, how to use them effectively in your revision timetable. 

Key Takeaways 

• Predicted papers can be helpful, but aren’t crystal balls: They are educated guesses based on past trends and exam board specifications, but they cannot predict exact exam questions. Use them as one of many revision tools, and don’t rely too heavily on them.

• Use predicted papers to improve your exam technique: Practising under timed conditions with predicted papers helps you manage time, interpret questions, and plan answers more effectively. This means that, even if the exact questions don’t appear in the real exam, you’ll still be well-prepared.

• Choose predicted papers carefully: Look for papers that match your exam board’s format, cover a broad range of topics from the specification, and include explanations or mark schemes. Avoid vague or poorly aligned papers that omit key content, as these are unlikely to be reliable. 

What Are Predicted Papers? 

Predicted papers are mock exam papers designed to simulate what might appear on the real exam. They are not the real thing, and are not created by official exam boards. Instead, they are often created by private tutors, teachers or schools, educational publishers, online revision websites and learning platforms. 

The content of predicted papers is usually based on past trends, topic rotation, and the exam board’s specification for a subject. High-quality predicted papers attempt to match the style, structure and level of difficulty of actual exam board papers. 

So, what’s the difference between predicted papers and practice papers? Whilst generic practice papers might simply reuse past questions or test general knowledge from the course, predicted papers are created with the goal of forecasting likely content or question styles for upcoming exams.

How Are Predicted Papers Made?

Although no one outside an exam board has access to future exam questions, experienced educators and publishers often try to make an educated guess about what questions might come up this year. Evidence they may base their predictions on include: 

1. Past paper analysis: They may look at which questions have come up or not in recent exams and make a prediction about whether they are likely to come up again this year.

2. Examiner Reports: Reviewing what examiners have said students did well or poorly on in previous years may give them some ideas about which skills and knowledge they are likely to want to test this year.

3. Specification Mapping: Tracking which areas of the exam board’s official specification have or haven’t been assessed to predict which areas of the specification may be tested this year.

4. Curriculum Changes and Current Events: Considering recent changes in course content, such as updated syllabuses, or recent relevant real-world events, may influence what exam boards include in their papers. 

While these methods can guide predictors, no one outside the exam board can be certain what questions will appear. Any paper claiming to be ‘just like the real exam’ should be viewed with caution. 

How Accurate Are Predicted Papers Really? 

Exam boards are very secretive about exam papers and will not share them publicly, such as online or with schools, before the exams are held. This means no one outside those working for the exam board will know the exact content of your exam before you sit it.  

Be wary of people who claim to know for sure what’s on your exam paper or have a copy of the paper, especially if they ask you to pay to access it. These people are unlikely to be genuine and may be trying to scam you.  

Examples from Previous Years 

One way to assess the reliability of a predicted paper is by checking whether it’s based on careful analysis of past exam papers. Exam boards tend to follow consistent structures and question formats each year. A high-quality predicted paper should reflect this by mimicking the exam board’s usual style. 

For example, A Level Politics exams from Pearson Edexcel (opens in a new tab) and AQA (opens in a new tab) have consistently included both source-based and essay questions. Likewise, AQA’s GCSE Religious Studies (opens in a new tab) papers typically include a multiple-choice question, several short-response questions, and a final extended essay. A predicted paper that mirrors these formats is more likely to be reliable than one with unfamiliar or unrelated structures. 

Reliable predicted papers also align closely with the official specification from the exam board. If a paper includes content that doesn’t appear in the specification, it should be treated with caution. You can find your exam board’s official specification on their website. 

For instance, a well-constructed predicted paper for GCSE Maths (OCR) (opens in a new tab) would likely include questions on key topics like fractions and algebra, as these are listed in the specification. In contrast, a predicted paper for A Level Philosophy (AQA) (opens in a new tab) should not include questions on mathematical concepts as they fall outside the scope of the specification. 

There is no official database tracking the accuracy of predicted papers, so most evidence is anecdotal. Some students say their predicted papers were almost identical to the real exam. Others report little or no overlap. The reality usually lies somewhere in between. Good predicted papers can reflect the structure and likely content of real exams, but they will never predict exact questions. 

Accuracy Varies by Subject 

Subjects with more rigid and structured question formats are generally easier to predict than those with open-ended or flexible styles. 

For example, exams for subjects like maths, physics, and chemistry often follow more predictable patterns because there are limited ways to assess a calculation or formula. Similarly, in subjects like biology and economics, where visuals such as diagrams and data charts are frequently used, question styles tend to repeat, sometimes using very similar images across different years. 

In contrast, essay-based subjects like English, history, and psychology are harder to forecast. A single topic can be assessed through a wide range of question styles, each focusing on a different angle or interpretation. The phrasing, emphasis, or perspective of a question can change significantly from one year to the next, making precise prediction much more difficult. 

What Predicted Papers Are Useful For 

Predicted papers may not be a crystal ball for seeing exactly what will appear in your exam, but they are still a valuable tool for testing your knowledge and improving your exam technique. 

Practice Under Exam Conditions 

Sitting a predicted paper in timed conditions can help you get used to managing time, sticking to structure, and understanding how long to spend on each question. This kind of exam simulation builds stamina and prepares you mentally for the pressure of the real thing. 

Identifying Gaps in Knowledge 

By attempting a predicted paper, you may discover topics you thought you understood but actually struggle to apply or remember under exam conditions. Drawing attention to any gaps in your knowledge can help you revise more strategically and improve your performance in areas you might otherwise overlook. 

Building Exam Confidence 

Practising realistic questions can help reduce exam anxiety and build your confidence tackling challenging questions under timed conditions. It helps you feel more familiar with what to expect in the exam hall and gives you a sense of progression. Even if the content isn’t a perfect match, getting into the rhythm of answering exam-style questions makes a big difference.

Common Misconceptions About Predicted Papers 

Some students treat predicted papers like a shortcut, wrongly believing that if they master predicted questions, they’ll ace the exam. This is not a good strategy to take. 

Predicted papers are just educated guesses about what might come up and are not the real thing. Believing otherwise can lead to overconfidence and under-preparation, so don’t rely too heavily on predicted papers in your revision. 

It’s important to revise the full syllabus and practise with a range of questions, not just those in predicted materials. Exams are designed to test your understanding in depth and across the whole course, so a predicted paper isn’t going to give you enough breadth or depth in your understanding to succeed in the real exam. 

How to Use Predicted Papers Effectively 

Combine with Past Papers and Specification Questions 

Past papers show the types of questions examiners have asked before and help you get familiar with the style, structure, and wording used by your exam board. Predicted papers can be useful when used alongside past papers. While past papers reflect what has been asked, predicted papers give you a chance to practise what might come up and can help you prepare for a wider range of possible questions. 

Specimen questions provided by your exam board are also valuable for your revision. These are created to show how new or updated specifications will be assessed in future exams. They can include question types or content that haven’t appeared in past papers yet, making them an important part of your revision. 

To get the most out of predicted papers, combine them with past and specimen papers. This approach ensures you’re not only reviewing what has already been tested but also preparing for what could appear next. 

Focus on Strategy, Not Just Content 

Relying only on the content covered in predicted papers is unlikely to lead to exam success. Predicted papers cover only a small portion of the full course, so if you limit your revision to these topics, you may miss out key areas that appear in the real exam. 

To avoid this, always revise using your exam board’s specification and topic checklists from your teachers, tutors or textbooks. This ensures you’re covering all topics and skills that could be tested in your real exam. Use predicted papers not as your main source of subject knowledge, but as a tool to sharpen your exam technique. 

Predicted papers are particularly useful for practising under exam conditions. Use them to:

• Read and interpret questions without your notes

• Plan structured answers in a short amount of time

• Manage time effectively across all questions 

Even if the questions in the predicted paper don’t appear in your real exam, the strategies you’ve practised, such as timing, planning, and understanding command words, will still be valuable and give you an advantage on exam day. 

Use Them with a Critical Eye 

Not all predicted papers are created equal. Some are vague, inaccurate, or poorly aligned with the mark scheme.

Here’s what to look for in a good predicted paper: 

• It matches your exam board’s question format and style

• The questions cover a broad range of skills or topics included in the specification

• It includes a mark scheme or model answers written to align with the specification

• It explains the rationale behind topic choices or predictions 

Avoid predicted papers that:

• Are generic and not specific to your exam board

• Are overly focused on one topic, miss out key topics or include content not on your exam board’s specification

• Lack explanations or justification for their question choices 

Frequently Asked Questions 

Should I revise only from predicted papers? 

No. Predicted papers should be a supplement to your revision, not your main method. Use other resources to guide your revision, including your exam board’s specification and topic checklists, past papers, topic revision notes, and active recall techniques, such as flashcards and blurting. Use predicted papers for extra practice and exposure to new questions, but not alone. 

Are predicted papers better than past papers? 

Not necessarily. Past papers reflect real questions from real exams, so give you accurate insight into how your exams will likely be formatted. Predicted papers are helpful, but they are only as good as the person creating them, so be sure to choose ones that are reliable and evidence-based. 

How do I know if a predicted paper is reliable? 

Check if the paper was created by a reputable source, whether it follows your exam board’s specification, and typical exam format and style. It should also include a clear rationale for topic and questions selection. If it feels too general or vague, it probably won’t be useful. 

Do exam boards release predicted papers? 

No. Exam boards don’t release predicted papers or hints about future exam content. Any paper claiming to come directly from an exam board as a prediction is not genuine. Official materials from the boards include past papers, specimen questions, mark schemes, and examiner reports, but not predicted papers. 

Final Thoughts 

Predicted papers can be a useful part of your revision plan, but they are not a guarantee of what you’ll see in the exam. Use them wisely, critically, and alongside other resources, such as past papers and your exam board’s syllabus, to ensure you are set up for exam success.