Understanding Predicted Grades: How They Work & Why They Matter

Not sure what predicted grades really mean or how they’ll affect your future? You’re not alone. If you don’t have the right information, it can be difficult to know how these grades are calculated, how much they matter, and what to do if they’re lower than expected.

This guide breaks down exactly how predicted grades work, how they can influence your university, scholarship and apprenticeship offers, and how you can boost yours before they’re finalised.

Key Takeaways

• Predicted grades show your academic potential: Predicted grades are submitted as part of your university application and are based on mock exams, coursework, effort, and progress. Universities use them as part of their decision-making process about whether to make you an offer. They can also be used for scholarship and apprenticeship applications.

• If you think your predicted grade is too low, take action: Ways you can show you’re serious about improving your grade includes asking your teachers for feedback and implementing it, putting extra effort into your classwork and homework and taking mock exams and tests seriously.

• Predicted grades aren’t the ‘real thing’: Although they are important for applications, predicted grades won’t influence your final exam grade. This means you can still do better than your predicted grade. 

What Are Predicted Grades?

Predicted grades are estimates assigned by your teachers/school that forecast the marks you are likely to achieve in your final exams. These predicted grades could be for your A Levels, IB, O Levels or other post-16 qualifications.

These grades play a key role in university applications, especially through systems like UCAS (opens in a new tab) in the UK, where conditional offers are made by universities before students have sat their final exams.

Teachers base predicted grades on a variety of factors. These include your performance in mock exams, coursework, classwork and homework, and your overall attitude and effort in class. The goal is to provide realistic but optimistic predictions about what you can achieve in your final exams and show universities what you’re capable of.

Why Predicted Grades Matter

Universities use predicted grades as a key part of their decision-making process about whether to make a student an offer. Your predicted grades can therefore affect whether you get offers from your preferred universities. Predicted grades can also influence college admissions, apprenticeships, and eligibility for scholarships.

How Predicted Grades Are Calculated

Teacher Judgement

Teachers combine several pieces of evidence when assigning predicted grades. These can include:

·       Mock exam and coursework results
·       Performance in classwork and homework tasks
·       Your engagement, effort, and progress in the subject

Teachers are also very aware there is still time for you to improve before your final exam and will factor this in when deciding your predicted grade. For example, if you are currently working at a C grade, your teacher may give you a predicted B grade because they think your work will improve before your final exam. 

Learn more about the grading scales for A Levels or IB.

School Policy and Evidence

Some schools use data tracking systems to support teachers in making predictions. While predicted grades should be realistic, teachers often aim to be encouraging and optimistic about your potential for improvement before the exams. 

Timeline: When Are Predicted Grades Finalised?

Predicted grades are usually finalised around the start of Year 13 (or equivalent). They are submitted as part of your UCAS application (opens in a new tab), which typically happens between September and January.

You may see early versions of your predicted grades in Year 12 to help you set realistic goals for applications and future plans.

What If You Disagree With Your Predicted Grades?

If you feel your predicted grades don’t reflect your ability, it’s best to discuss this politely with your subject teacher. Ask for feedback on how you might improve and whether your prediction can be reconsidered.

If you still believe the grade is unfair or an error has been made, you can seek support from your head of year or tutor. Keep a record of recent work or assessments that show your progress to support your case.

How Predicted Grades Affect University Offers

If you’re applying to a UK university via UCAS (opens in a new tab), your predicted grades will be shared with all universities you apply to. Universities will use your predicted grades as a key factor when deciding whether to make you an offer. 

If your predicted grades fall below a university’s entry requirements, your chances of receiving an offer may be lower. Check the course pages for your chosen universities to see if your predicted grades are high enough to secure an offer.

If you’re applying to universities outside the UK, predicted grades may still be important, as they provide insights into your academic level and performance. However, some actual grades may be more important to international universities than predicted grades, such as SAT (opens in a new tab) or ACT (opens in a new tab) scores for US university applications.

Can You Still Get Into University If Your Predicted Grades Are Low?

Yes, it is still possible to secure a university offer if your predicted grades are low. 

You could apply strategically by choosing a mix of aspirational, realistic, and backup university options to give you a good chance of securing at least one offer. For example, if you have been predicted CCB by your teacher/school, you could apply for an aspirational university with CBB grade requirements, a realistic university with CCB requirements and a backup option with CCC requirements. 

If you’re not sure whether a university is likely to make you an offer based on your predicted grades, it can be helpful to speak to the university’s admissions team directly. You can find contact details for university admissions teams online, usually on the university’s website. 

Some universities also make contextual offers, where grade requirements may be lower depending on your personal circumstances and background. If you think you may be eligible for a contextual offer, speak to the university’s admissions team to find out more.

If you have been predicted lower grades and are applying to university via UCAS, you can also use your personal statement and reference letters from your teacher/school to highlight strengths beyond your predicted grades, such as your passion for your chosen subject and extracurriculars.

Tips to Improve Your Predicted Grades Before They’re Finalised

Here is our top advice for getting the best predicted grade possible:

1. Take mock exams and coursework seriously. Schools often use these as a benchmark for predictions, so it is important to do as best as you can in them. 

2. Request specific feedback from your teachers and act on it. This will show you are serious about improving your grade before the final exam.

3. Demonstrate consistent effort, active participation, and engagement in your subjects. This can be done through attending all your classes and asking questions in them, completing all classwork and homework on time and to a good standard, and following-up on your teachers’ feedback.

Predicted Grades vs Final Grades

Remember, predicted grades are not the real thing. They are just estimates. This means your final exam results may be higher or lower depending on your revision and exam performance.

Universities only confirm conditional offers based on your actual results, not your predicted grades, so performing well in your final exams is essential to secure your place.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can teachers change predicted grades after submitting them to UCAS?

Usually, predicted grades cannot be changed once submitted to UCAS, but some exceptions may apply.

Are predicted grades always accurate?

Predicted grades are estimates of your future performance, so may not always reflect final results. Teachers/schools often use a range of metrics, from performance in class to mock exam results, to try to make accurate predictions. However, they don’t always get it right and may be too optimistic or not optimistic enough about your potential to improve before the final exams.

Will my predicted grades appear on my results certificate?

No, predicted grades are not shown on your final results certificate. These grades are not shared with exam boards, so they do not influence your final exam grade in any way.

Can predicted grades be used for appeal or special consideration?

Predicted grades are not usually accepted as a reason to appeal final exam results. However, in some cases, such as illness or other serious issues that prevented you from sitting your exams, they might be included as supporting evidence during a special consideration request.

Final Thoughts 

Predicted grades are certainly important for your university applications and give you a good sense of how you are progressing in your subject. However, they are only one part of your whole academic journey and are not the real thing. In the end, your final results and what you do next matter most.

Sources

UCAS (opens in a new tab)

Applying | UCAS (opens in a new tab)