Exam code: 7136
2 marksExtract D
Figure 3: CPI inflation rates (%) for Japan and the UK, 2010 to 2015
Year | Japan | UK |
2010 | -0.72 | 3.29 |
2011 | -0.28 | 4.48 |
2012 | -0.03 | 2.83 |
2013 | 0.36 | 2.56 |
2014 | 2.75 | 1.46 |
2015 | 0.80 | 0.05 |
Using the data in Extract D (Figure 3), calculate, to two decimal places, the mean inflation rate for Japan from 2010 to 2015.
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4 marksExtract D
Figure 3: CPI inflation rates (%) for Japan and the UK, 2010 to 2015
Year | Japan | UK |
2010 | -0.72 | 3.29 |
2011 | -0.28 | 4.48 |
2012 | -0.03 | 2.83 |
2013 | 0.36 | 2.56 |
2014 | 2.75 | 1.46 |
2015 | 0.80 | 0.05 |
Explain how the data in Extract D (Figure 4) show that Japan has been less successful than the UK in achieving a stable rate of economic growth.
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Extract E: Financial regulation and monetary policy In response to the lessons learned from the global financial crisis of 2007/08, the government of the UK has introduced major reforms to financial markets. The government recognised that systemic risk, moral hazard and imperfect information had all contributed to the credit crunch and subsequent recession in the UK. As a result, changes have been made to try to avoid a recurrence of failing banks and expensive state-backed bailouts. The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) was established to ensure the stability of firms offering financial services and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) was set up to regulate the industry. Also, the Bank of England is responsible for supervising the whole financial system through the Financial Policy Committee (FPC). The FPC identifies and attempts to reduce risks in the system. The new framework is seen as the biggest change for the Bank of England since it was given operational independence for the conduct of monetary policy in 1997. Since 2013, the Treasury has required the Bank of England to place more emphasis on helping the government to achieve its objectives for growth and employment, in addition to its central objective of maintaining price stability. However, some argue that trying to maintain stable prices and low unemployment could create trade-offs. The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to lower Bank Rate to 0.5% in 2009, and the subsequent decision to lower it to 0.25% in 2016, have been instrumental in the UK’s sustained recovery and return to low levels of unemployment. The Bank of England has also used quantitative easing (QE) to boost consumption and investment. Maintaining low interest rates is considered by many to be vital for both consumer and business confidence. |
5
10
15
20 |
Source: News reports, 2016
Extract E (lines 16–17) states ‘However, some argue that trying to maintain stable prices and low unemployment could create trade-offs.’
With the help of a diagram, explain why a trade-off between price stability and low unemployment might occur.
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10 marksExtract B: Trends in UK manufacturing
Figure 1: Index of manufacturing output 2003 to 2015, 1997 = 100
Figure 2: Manufacturing employment Jan–Mar 2003 to Oct–Dec 2015, thousands
Figure 3: Value of UK trade in goods 2003 to 2015, £ billion at current prices
Year | Exports | Imports | Balance |
2003 | 188.5 | 239.5 | –51.0 |
2004 | 191.6 | 253.5 | –61.9 |
2005 | 212.1 | 282.2 | –70.1 |
2006 | 244.0 | 322.9 | –78.9 |
2007 | 223.0 | 313.5 | –90.5 |
2008 | 254.6 | 349.6 | –95.0 |
2009 | 229.1 | 315.7 | –86.6 |
2010 | 270.2 | 367.6 | –97.4 |
2011 | 308.2 | 401.7 | –93.5 |
2012 | 304.3 | 410.8 | –106.5 |
2013 | 306.2 | 421.5 | –115.3 |
2014 | 293.7 | 416.9 | –123.2 |
2015 | 285.6 | 410.7 | –125.1 |
Figure 4: Annual average rate of growth in UK manufacturing output and real GDP, 1949 to 2015
Years | Average rate of growth of UK manufacturing (%) | Average rate of growth of UK real GDP (%) |
1949 – 1973 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
1974 – 1992 | 0.1 | 1.9 |
1993 – 2007 | 0.9 | 3.0 |
2008 | –2.8 | –0.5 |
2009 | –9.4 | –4.2 |
2010 – 2015 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
Source: Official statistics for all data in Extract B
To what extent, if at all, do you consider that the UK manufacturing sector has been in decline since 2003? You must use the data in Extract B to support your assessment.
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15 marksEssay 2 During 2018, the UK experienced an annual growth rate of 1.4%, an unemployment rate of around 4.1%, inflation close to target at 2.5% and a reduced current account deficit on the balance of payments. However, in November 2018, the Bank of England warned that economic shocks could damage the UK’s prosperity.
Explain how demand-side and supply-side shocks might increase unemployment in an economy.
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25 marksEssay 2 During 2018, the UK experienced an annual growth rate of 1.4%, an unemployment rate of around 4.1%, inflation close to target at 2.5% and a reduced current account deficit on the balance of payments. However, in November 2018, the Bank of England warned that economic shocks could damage the UK’s prosperity.
Evaluate the view that the main objectives of UK government macroeconomic policy can be achieved without conflicting with each other.
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Extract B: What is GDP? |
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Imagine £50 notes stacked on top of each other, stretching almost 4500 kilometres into the sky. This fantastically large amount of money (more than £2 trillion) is the current estimated value of the UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). | 1 |
GDP is the standard measure of the size and health of a country’s economy but it is important to distinguish between nominal and real GDP. It’s the way we measure and compare how well or badly countries are doing. In other words, it is the total value of the output of goods and services produced in an economy over a period of time. The higher the value of GDP, the bigger the economy. If injections into an economy’s circular flow of income increase, then this may generate multiple increases in GDP, depending upon the size of the marginal propensity to consume. | 5 10 |
Why is the measurement of GDP important? Well, it’s a way of keeping track of how the economy is doing, and whether it is growing. We can also use it to measure one economy against other economies using purchasing power parity exchange rates. If real GDP goes up, the economy is doing well; this is associated with higher incomes, more jobs and higher spending. If real GDP goes down, the economy is not doing so well; this is associated with falling incomes, lower consumption and a lower standard of living. | 15 |
Source: News reports, 2017
Extract B (lines 13–15) states ‘If real GDP goes up, the economy is doing well; this is associated with higher incomes, more jobs and higher spending.’
Using the data in the extracts and your knowledge of economics, assess the view that to improve the living standards of their citizens, governments across the world should prioritise achieving economic growth.
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15 marksEssay 3
In the past few years, CPI inflation has often differed by more than 1% from its 2% target. In the winter of 2015 the UK experienced a brief period of deflation but, more recently, inflation has been over 3%. Explain the main causes of a rise in inflation.
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25 marksEssay 3
In the past few years, CPI inflation has often differed by more than 1% from its 2% target. In the winter of 2015 the UK experienced a brief period of deflation but, more recently, inflation has been over 3%.
Evaluate the view that inflation is always preferable to deflation.
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Essay 3
In July 2017, more people were employed in the UK than ever before. At the same time, the UK unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the lowest rate for 40 years. Whilst this suggests that the government’s policies for employment are working, some claim that zero-hours contracts, low real wages and temporary jobs have made many people worse off.
Explain the causes of cyclical and structural unemployment.
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Essay 3
In July 2017, more people were employed in the UK than ever before. At the same time, the UK unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the lowest rate for 40 years. Whilst this suggests that the government’s policies for employment are working, some claim that zero-hours contracts, low real wages and temporary jobs have made many people worse off.
Assess the view that falling unemployment will inevitably lead to an improvement in the standard of living for people in the UK.
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25 marksEssay 1
Between 2011 and 2016, UK unemployment fell from a high of 8.5% to 4.8%. Some argue that government attempts to reduce unemployment inevitably lead to trade-offs with other macroeconomic policy objectives.
Discuss the view that falling unemployment will inevitably lead to trade-offs with other macroeconomic policy objectives.
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