Case Study: The 2024 Election (Edexcel A Level Politics): Revision Note

National voting behaviour in the 2024 general election

Context

• The 2024 election followed a turbulent political period

  • The aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, economic pressures, and widespread dissatisfaction with public services shaped voter attitudes

  • Successive Conservative scandals - especially Partygate - and leadership instability (Johnson → Truss → Sunak) weakened public trust

  • Liz Truss’s 2022 mini-budget triggered financial turmoil, damaging the party’s reputation for economic competence

Election results

• Labour secured a landslide majority despite a relatively modest vote share, making it the most disproportionate election in UK history under FPTP

Voting patterns

• Turnout was just 59.8%, the second-lowest on record, reflecting voter disengagement and frustration with mainstream politics

• Third parties played a notable role

  • Liberal Democrats achieved major gains with 72 seats on 12.2% of the vote

  • Reform UK won 5 seats on around 14% of the national vote, highlighting the system’s disproportionality

• Voting patterns showed ongoing dealignment, with traditional class, age and regional voting patterns becoming more fluid

Factors affecting the 2024 general election outcome

Economic pressures and cost-of-living concerns

• Rising energy bills, inflation, mortgage costs and declining real incomes contributed to widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the economy

Government instability and leadership perceptions

• The Conservatives had three prime ministers in quick succession, undermining the perception of governing competence

• The fallout from Partygate continued to damage trust, even after Johnson left office

• Rishi Sunak struggled to present a unified or inspiring message in a party fractured over direction and identity

Labour’s strategic repositioning

• Labour promised renewal, emphasising economic stability, improved public services, and investment in skills and green jobs

• Policies included the creation of Great British Energy, NHS funding boosts and a focus on rebuilding infrastructure

• The manifesto stressed fiscal credibility, aiming to reassure voters after years of economic instability

Campaign strategies

• Campaigns targeted marginal seats, using data-driven approaches

• The Conservatives focused on tax cuts, tougher law and order, strict immigration measures and business incentives, but struggled to regain trust

• Liberal Democrats concentrated on local campaigning, especially around housing, sewage pollution and NHS services, enabling them to win many affluent southern seats

Media and communication

• Some traditionally Conservative-supporting media outlets, including The Sun, endorsed Labour shortly before polling day

• Social media, especially TikTok and Instagram, was heavily used to target younger and disengaged voters

• Reform UK’s online presence boosted its visibility, contributing to its strong vote share

The impact of the 2024 general election on parties and government

• The election resulted in a Labour landslide, giving the party a large parliamentary majority and enabling it to pursue its agenda for economic and institutional renewal

• Labour’s victory represented a major realignment

  • The party expanded into traditionally Conservative southern areas while retaining much of its urban support

  • Many voters indicated they voted Labour primarily to remove the Conservatives from government rather than out of strong enthusiasm, reflecting negative voting motivations

• The Conservative Party suffered a historically severe defeat

  • Their seat total fell to 121, the lowest in their history

  • The party faced questions about identity, strategy and the future direction of the right, with Reform UK’s rise intensifying internal pressures

• Third parties became more influential

  • The Liberal Democrats re-emerged as the third-largest party with 72 seats

  • Reform UK’s vote share, although poorly converted into seats, demonstrated appetite for an alternative to traditional parties

• The result highlighted major weaknesses in FPTP

  • Labour won a huge majority on a relatively low vote share

  • Reform UK’s high national support translated minimally into parliamentary representation

• The new Labour government faced significant challenges

  • Repairing public services, restoring economic stability and responding to long-term structural issues such as housing, climate commitments and productivity