Media & Election Outcomes (Edexcel A Level Politics): Revision Note

Role of the media in elections

• The media is a key source for voters to obtain information about political parties and their policies during, and between, elections

UK media sources

1. Television news (e.g. BBC, ITV, Sky, etc.)

• Television news media is the primary source of information for older voters

  • Its popularity is falling amongst young voters

• 70% of UK adults report broadcast TV as the most used form of news consumption

  • This rises to 75% if on-demand sources are included

  • 85% of over-55s said TV news was their favoured platform

2. Newspapers

• Print newspaper circulation has been in decline since 2010

  • In 2018 its reach was around 40% of the population, but by 2023 it had fallen to just 26%

• Online newspaper readership remains influential among older voters

  • In 2023, 68% of UK adults said they used online news sources

3. Social media

• There has been a significant increase in the use of social media by younger voters for political news

  • The use of social media by adults to access news rose to 52% in 2024, from 44% in 2018

  • Under-35s use social platforms more for political news than other sources

    • In 2023, 83% of 16-24-year-olds used online sources for news and 71% used social media specifically, whilst only 47% watched broadcast TV

4. Broadcast debates and live events

• Televised leadership debates may sway undecided voters

  • However, their popularity has declined over time, with just 4.8 million voters watching the 2024 televised debate

5. Radio

• Radio is a less significant source of news for voters, with only two radio stations appearing in the top 20 news sources

  • Around one in four BBC Radio 2 listeners use it specifically for news, and around one in five BBC Radio 1 and BBC Radio 4 listeners

    • All other stations report significant lower usage for news

Opinion polls

• An opinion poll is a survey that asks a sample of people about their views on political issues, parties or their leaders, to estimate what the wider population thinks

  • They are usually undertaken by companies specialising in political polling, such as YouGov

Arguments for the use of opinion polls

• To guide party campaign strategy

  • Parties reallocate resources to marginals when polls show shifts

    • In 2017, polls showing that the Conservative lead had narrowed pushed Labour to target youth turnout

    • 2015 polls showing the rise of UKIP influenced Conservative Party policy on the inclusion of a Brexit referendum in their election manifesto

• Provide early warning of swings by voters

  • Polls can indicate the potential outcome in swing seats and can therefore help parties to target their canvassing

    • Polls in 2019 signalled a Conservative surge in many of these seats

• Help voters judge party momentum

  • Perception of momentum can influence undecided voters, known as the bandwagon effect

    • This can help to increase turnout or the majority that a party gains at an election

Arguments against the use of opinion polls

• Polls can demobilise supporters

  • Polls that indicate the dominance and likely victory of one party can reduce turnout for both the anticipated victor and for the opposition 

    • Turnout in 2024 was historically low, with polling indicating a likely Labour landslide

    • Polling on the Brexit referendum suggested a remain victory, which may have depressed the turnout of ‘remain’ voters and mobilised ‘leave’ voters

    • Recent General Elections have all seen websites that argue for tactical voting

• Margin of error and methodology failures

  • Polls can misestimate parties with shy supporters or turnout differences

    • 2015 and 2017 polling errors led to surprise results

      • In 2015, the ‘shy Tory’ phenomenon was used to explain why the Conservatives were polling quite low but went on to victory

• Polls can create self-fulfilling prophecies

  • When the media reports poll leads, it can shape the narrative irrespective of reality

    • 2010 and 2015 coverage sometimes amplified small leads, skewing the perception of voters

How important is the media?

• During election times, the media is often dominated by election coverage

  • It is, however, unclear whether this coverage has an impact on voters

The media is important

• Agenda setting

  • Newspaper front pages and broadcast news stories shape what voters think on particular issues

    • The Daily Mail headline ‘Enemies of the People’ referring to UK Supreme Court judges in ruling on Miller V Brexit Secretary (2017) created a huge debate on the role of the judiciary

    • E.g. Miller v. Brexit Secretary (2017) was a case around whether Parliament had to have a vote on Brexit before the UK left the EU, and the Supreme Court decided that that did

• Televised debates

  • These can change perceptions of leaders

    • Most famously in 2010, Nick Clegg’s success in the televised debates led to him being called ‘Super Nick’

• Investigations

  • Investigative journalism has uncovered scandals that has impacted elections

    • The 2009 expenses scandal led to a number of MPs losing their seats in 2010

    • The ‘Partygate’ scandals of Boris Johnson during Covid-19 led to his resignation and had a huge role in the Conservative 2024 defeat

• Endorsements

  • There remains a focus on which party specific newspapers will give their support to in an election

• Advertising

  • Political parties have increasingly taken to social media for advertising purposes

    • So even if people are taking their news from social media, they may well find themselves directly hearing from parties through advertising

The media is not important

• Party loyalty

  • Despite a growth in rational choice theory, there is some evidence that factors other than media headlines influence voting choice

    • Demographic voting patterns by age, for example, tend to defy media headlines

• Televised debates

  • Measuring the impact of these is challenging

    • Even in 2010, despite Nick Clegg’s success, his party did not have huge success in the election

    • Both May and Corbyn avoided leaders' debates in 2017

• Echo chambers

  • The number of news outlets has grown and social media has greater influence

    • Voters self-select the news they want to hear rather than being influenced by a range of news outlets offering differing views

• Social media

  • Younger voters rely on social media rather than traditional media, which dilutes their impact

    • Nearly half of UK adults use social media for news, no longer limited to just younger voters

    • In 2023, 10% of UK adults got their news from TikTok

• Endorsements

  • Falling sales and readerships of traditional media lessens the importance of endorsements of parties by newspapers