Voting Behaviour (Edexcel A Level Politics): Revision Note

Introduction to voting behaviour

• Voting behaviour refers to the factors that influence how and why people choose to vote for a particular political party

Factors affecting voting behaviour in the UK

• In the UK, this behaviour has become increasingly complex

  • Traditionally, factors such as social class, age, region, ethnicity, education and gender shaped predictable voting patterns

  • However, voters today are less tied to a single party and less likely to vote according to their social group

• Major national events, perceptions of party competence, and attitudes toward issues such as Brexit, can be more important than demographic factors

Social class and voting behaviour

• Social class refers to a way of grouping people in society based on their economic and social status, such as job type, income and education

  • Class dealignment is the weakening of the link between a person’s class and the traditional party with which they would have been aligned

  • Partisan dealignment is the long-term decline of a voter being loyal to just one party

• Historically, social class was defined by income

  • Working-class voters were seen to be aligned with the Labour Party

  • Higher-earning middle-class voters and the upper-classes were aligned with the Conservative Party

• Class in the UK today is usually defined by occupation rather than income, broken into ‘social bands’

Social class and the UK population

• AB - Higher and intermediate managerial, administrative or professional roles

• C1 - Supervisory or junior managerial, administrative or professional roles

• C2 - Skilled manual workers

• DE - Semi- and unskilled manual workers and unemployed

Class dealignment

• Recent elections have seen class dealignment

  • Voters have not voted as expected by the social band, with other demographic factors becoming more important

• In the 2024 general election, ‘traditional’ voting patterns were challenged in some ways, but they also reflected the importance of national circumstances

  • After 14 years of Conservative rule, austerity, Covid, and scandals such as Partygate, half of voters said that they voted Labour to ‘get the Tories out’

  • This undermines the importance of all demographic factors

Voting by social class in 2024

Age and voting behaviour

• Younger voters have tended to vote for more left-wing parties, whilst older voters have tended to vote for more right-wing parties

  • In 1979, 18-24 year-olds cast 42% of their votes for Conservatives; this was just 5% in 2024

  • In 1979, 38% of 65+ year-olds voted Labour; this dropped to 23% in 2024.

  • However between 1979-2024, the 18-24 year-old vote for Labour remained around 40% and the 65+ vote for Conservatives remained around 45%

• Older voters are also more likely to vote than younger voters

  • Less than half of 18-24 year-olds voted in 2024, whilst over three-quarters of over-65s voted

• Age, along with education, was the most important factor for voting behaviour in 2024

Voting by age in 2024

Region and voting behaviour

Red Wall and Blue Wall

• Traditionally, Labour have had a stronger-voter base in the north (red wall), whilst the Conservative Party tended to perform better in the south and south-east (blue wall)

  • In the 2019 election, many ‘red wall’ seats fell to the Conservative Party

Vote share in red wall seats in the North-east, 2019

• The blue wall refers to parliamentary seats in the south that have traditionally voted Conservative

  • In the 2024 election, many ‘blue wall’ seats fell to the Labour Party

Vote share in blue wall seats in the South-east, 2024

Voting behaviour in London

• Since its inception, voters have elected a Labour Party Mayor of London on five out of seven occasions

• London councils are overwhelmingly Labour-run and, in the 2024 general election, the Labour Party achieved a 43% vote share in the capital

Vote share in London, 2024

Ethnicity and voting behaviour

• Typically, the Labour Party has gained strong support from ethnic minority voters

  • The Conservative Party tends to enjoy stronger support from white voters

• However, between 2019 and 2024 :

  • The Conservative Party saw a 22% drop in their share of white voters

  • Labour saw an 18% drop in their share of ethnic minority voters

Vote share by ethnicity, 2024

• Ethnic minorities are not a homogenous group

  • In 2024 Asian voters, black voters, and mixed-race voters all showed slightly different voting patterns

Vote share by ethnic group, 2024

Education and voting behaviour

• Those who were educated to school-level were more likely to vote Labour in every election from 1979-2015

  • Graduates were more likely to vote Conservative

• Since Brexit this has reversed

  • Graduates were more likely to have backed ‘Remain’ and and have subsequently backed Labour

  • School leavers were more likely to have backed ‘Leave’ and have subsequently backed the Conservatives

• Education is related strongly to age

  • In 2001 only 20% of voters were graduates

  • In 2031 graduates are expected to outnumber school leavers

• Education, along with age, was the most important factor in determining voting behaviour in 2024

Vote share by level of education, 2024

Gender and voting behaviour

• Historically, women have been slightly more likely to vote for left-leaning parties

  • Men have been slightly more likely to vote for right-leaning parties

• In 2024, this gender gap narrowed

  • 34% of men and 35% of women voted Labour

  • 23% of men and 26% of women voted Conservative

• There is a relationship between age and gender

  • Labour received more votes from younger women than younger men

  • Conservatives received more votes from older women than older men

    • Around 20% of older men were inclined to vote for Reform