Coalitions of Voters (Edexcel A Level Politics): Revision Note

Race and voting

• Race is a very strong predictor of voting behaviour in recent US elections

  • Voting patterns demonstrate the persistence of identity-based voting

  • However, growing diversity within racial groups shows that race is influential but not determinative

• African American voters overwhelmingly support the Democratic Party

  • Joe Biden won approximately 87% of the Black vote in 2020

    • This reflects long-term alignment based on civil rights, voting rights and social welfare policies

  • Democratic support among Black voters remained high in 2024

    • Particularly in swing states such as Georgia, where groups like Fair Fight helped increase turnout following voter suppression concerns

• White voters favour Republican candidates

  • Donald Trump won a majority of white voters without a college degree in both 2020 and 2024

  • This reflects cultural conservatism and economic nationalism

• Hispanic and Latino voters show increasing diversity in voting patterns

  • Trump improved his share of the Hispanic vote in 2020 and maintaining gains in 2024, particularly among Cuban Americans in Florida

• Asian American voters largely support Democrats

  • Motivated by immigration policy and opposition to anti-Asian rhetoric, especially after COVID-19-related hate crimes

Gender and voting

• Gender plays a significant role in shaping voting behaviour, particularly through the gender gap

• Women voters consistently favour Democratic candidates

  • Biden won around 57% of women’s votes in 2020, driven by support for abortion rights, healthcare and gun control

• Young women show especially strong Democratic support

  • Turnout has increased, linked to abortion access and climate change concerns

• The gender gap widened in 2024, following Dobbs v Jackson (2022)

  • Democratic messaging focused on protecting reproductive rights, mobilised suburban women voters

• Men are more likely to support Republican candidates

  • Particularly white men without college degrees, who backed Trump’s economic nationalism and opposition to woke culture

• Republican struggles among women voters persist

  • Despite attempts to moderate messaging on abortion in some states during the 2024 campaign

• Gender-based voting highlights how policy priorities and social values intersect with electoral behaviour

Religion and voting

• Religion shapes voting behaviour, though its influence varies by denomination and intensity of belief

• White evangelical Christians overwhelmingly support Republicans

  • Around 76% voted for Trump in 2020, driven by opposition to abortion and support for conservative judicial appointments

  • Evangelical support remained strong in 2024, especially after the Dobbs decision, which fulfilled long-standing religious conservative goals

• Catholic voters are more divided

  • Biden narrowly won the Catholic vote in 2020, reflecting splits between social justice and abortion priorities

• Jewish voters strongly favour Democrats

  • Over 65% supported Biden in 2020, influenced by concerns over religious tolerance and civil rights

• Religiously unaffiliated voters lean heavily Democrat

  • Particularly younger voters, reflecting secular attitudes toward social issues

Education and voting

• Educational attainment has become an increasingly important factor in US voting behaviour

  • It now rivals race as a predictor of partisan alignment

• Voters without college degrees strongly support Republicans

  • Trump won a majority of non-college-educated white voters in both 2020 and 2024

  • Republican appeals to working-class voters, focused on economic nationalism and cultural conservatism, reinforce educational polarisation

• College-educated voters increasingly support Democrats

  • Particularly in suburban areas, reflecting opposition to populist rhetoric and support for social liberalism

• The education divide widened in 2024

  • Democrats consolidated gains among university-educated professionals

• Highly educated voters prioritised issues such as climate change and democracy

  • This is in response to concerns about election denial following January 6th, 2021