Pre-release materials 2026: Introduction UK Water Challenge (AQA GCSE Geography): Revision Note

Pre-release materials 2026: Introduction

• The AQA pre-release materials are now available to schools

• AQA copyright and exam regulations mean that the resources themselves cannot be shared online – you will receive or may already have received the booklet from your teacher at school

• These notes can be used alongside the pre-release booklet to support you in preparing for Paper 3

• The issue evaluation is synoptic, which means that it covers more than one topic from the specification

• The topics covered in the 2026 issue evaluation are:

• The materials below will provide all the background information on the issue and key exam tips needed to tackle the questions in the 2026 Geography Paper 3 successfully

• The materials will support you to:

  • Set the issue in context, including where it is and the key facts about the location

  • Examine conflicting stakeholder viewpoints regarding the issue

  • Make an appraisal of the advantages and disadvantages

  • Evaluate any alternatives

• In the exam, you will need to answer various questions about the proposal for a new reservoir in Sleaford, Lincolnshire, East England

• You will have about 35-40 minutes for this section of the exam

  • There will be a series of short skills questions (2-3 marks), followed by 6-mark extended questions and then a final 9-mark question which asks you to decide on the issue

  • In the 9-mark question, you will be asked whether you agree or disagree with a statement, and then you will be expected to explain your answer.

    • It does not matter whether you agree or disagree; what matters is how you justify your answer using evidence from the materials in the resource booklet and your knowledge

• The issue evaluation skills guide is also here to help you

• It provides support with interpreting and using the sources that you have available in the booklet

Where does UK water come from?

• UK water companies deliver approximately 15 billion litres of water per day (Gov.uk (opens in a new tab), 2025)

• This water comes from:

  • Surface water

  • Groundwater

• Approximately 64% of drinking water in England comes from surface water

  • In Wales and Scotland, the figures are higher at 93% and 95% (gov.uk)

  • This water is stored in reservoirs and lakes

• In England, about 30% comes from groundwater

  • In Wales and Scotland, this figure is lower at 6% and 5%

• Between 6-8% of the supply comes from mixed or other sources (DEFRA)

(Drinking Water Inspectorate: Drinking Water 2024)

Why does the UK have a water shortage?

• The UK often seems to have a lot of rainfall

  • This means the idea of a water shortage or deficit seems odd

• It is important to recognise that the UK has areas of water surplus but also areas of water deficit

• The areas of water deficit are becoming more widespread due to increased demand and reduced supply

Increased demand

• The increases in demand in the UK are the result of:

  • Population growth

  • People are showering and washing clothes more frequently

  • Farming systems such as greenhouses need more water for irrigation

  • More use of washing machines, dishwashers, power washers, and hosepipes

  • Emerging technologies

• The average household uses 70% more water today than it did in 1985

Reduced supply

• There is also a decreasing supply of water in the UK as a result of:

  • Warmer, drier summers

  • Unpredictable winter rainfall

  • Increased evaporation rates

• In June 2025, reservoirs in England were at 76% of their capacity

  • This is lower than the severe drought level of 2022

Water surplus and deficit in the UK

• Precipitation across the UK is unevenly distributed

• The north and west of the UK have a water surplus

  • Levels of precipitation are higher in the north and east

  • Population density is lower

• The south and east of the UK have a water deficit

  • Levels of precipitation are lower in the south and east

  • Population density is higher

Effective rainfall

• Not all rainfall is available for drinking and other uses

• Evaporation and uptake by plants use some of the rainfall

• The remaining water available for use is known as effective rainfall

  • The amount of effective annual rainfall varies across the UK

    • In Northwest England, it can exceed 2500mm

    • In some areas of Eastern England, it can be lower than 200mm

Key idea

• Different parts of the UK have different levels of water availability

• This is due to a combination of different levels of supply and demand

Water budget graph

• Water balance is the difference between the inputs into a system and the outputs

  • This determines how much water remains as surface water and groundwater

• The input into the system is precipitation

• The outputs are evaporation and transpiration

  • Combined, these are known as evapotranspiration

Seasonal changes in water availability

• In winter, higher precipitation and lower evapotranspiration often lead to a surplus

  • Groundwater sources recharge

  • Uptake of water by plants is low

  • River discharge is high and rivers may flood

  • Reservoir and lake stores increase

• In summer, lower precipitation and higher evapotranspiration may lead to a deficit

  • Groundwater stores decrease as the demand for water increases (people use more water in summer)

  • Soil moisture levels decrease as the uptake by plants increases

  • River discharge decreases, and smaller rivers may even dry up

  • Reservoir and lake levels decrease

Seasonal changes in water demand

• As well as seasonal changes in water supply, there are also seasonal changes in water demand

• In winter, demand is lower, and people are not using as much

• In summer, demand increases; people are using more water for

  • drinking

  • leisure – paddling pools, hot tubs, golf courses

  • watering gardens

• Typically, demand increases by 20% in the summer months

  • In the hottest, driest periods, such as summer 2022, demand increased 70% in some areas

Key idea

• As temperatures rise, the amount of available water decreases, while demand for water increases

  • This means in some areas of the UK, there will be an increasing water deficit

  • This has led to water conservation measures such as hosepipe bans and publicity campaigns reminding people of how to conserve water

Water stress in the UK

• The seasonal changes and differences in supply and demand can lead to water stress

• Water stress is experienced by much of the UK

  • Different regions experience different levels of water stress

  • It reflects the levels of water supply and demand in that region

• Water stress occurs when the demand for water in a place exceeds the amount of water available, or when the poor quality of water restricts its use

Future UK water needs

• It is estimated that by 2050, England will have a 5 billion litre a day deficit of water for public use

  • A further 1 billion litres will be required for energy, food and industry

  • This is based on an increased demand of around 4 billion litres a day, combined with a decrease in supply

• The increase in demand will vary across regions

  • Areas with the highest demand are likely to be those where there are:

    • Most new housing developments

    • Greatest population increases

• It is estimated that the south-east of England alone will need an additional 1 billion litres of water by 2050 to meet the increased demand

Climate change and water supply

• There will also be changes in supply

  • Some areas will experience more significant changes in rainfall patterns due to climate change

  • The Environment Agency predicted that:

    • The amount of water available in England could decrease by up to 10%

    • Some rivers could see a 80% decrease in water during summer

  • Climate change may also impact water quality by increasing algal growth

Meeting water needs in the UK

• Water companies in the UK are under pressure to meet the needs of increasing water demand

• An estimated 27% of groundwater sources are experiencing over-abstraction

  • This effort includes reducing groundwater use due to environmental concerns about over-abstraction:

    • Streams drying up

    • Habitat and biodiversity loss

    • Reduction of water quality

    • Saltwater intrusion

• In the past, water companies have imposed water restrictions such as hosepipe bans to ensure that water demand can be met

  • This type of restriction is expected twice as often between 2020 and 2050

• The future increase in demand and decrease in supply will require more action to be taken

• To meet these needs, the Environment Agency report (Gov.uk, 2025) states that there will need to be:

  • action to reduce water leaks

  • better management of demand

  • construction of 9 new desalination schemes, 10 new reservoirs, new water transfer and water recycling schemes

• The National Framework for Water Resources report also highlights the importance of individual action; people should:

  • reduce water waste and consumption

  • use water more efficiently

Water pollution in the UK

• The quality of water is as important as the supply of water

• The UK has experienced an increase in water pollution incidents

• Water pollution incidents are recorded in four categories

  • Category 1 - major

  • Category 2 - significant

  • Category 3 - minor

  • Category 4 - no impact

• In the UK, there has been a steady increase in category 1 and 2 incidents

  • In 2021, there were 325 incidents

Impact of category 1 and 2 incidents

• Category 1 incidents cause serious, extensive or persistent harm, which may include:

  • A large number of fish deaths and other impacts on ecosystems, including the disruption of food chains

  • Potential harm to human health

  • Shut down of abstraction for drinking water

• Category 2 incidents cause less extensive harm, but effects may include:

  • Fish deaths and other impacts on ecosystems

  • Temporary halt on abstraction for drinking water

  • Potential harm to human health

Causes of water pollution

• The main causes of water pollution in the UK include:

  • Agriculture

    • Fertilisers containing nitrates and phosphates

    • Pesticides

    • Slurry

  • Sewage

    • During periods of heavy rain, water companies are allowed to discharge sewage directly into rivers

    • Treated sewage, which contains residues of chemicals, is also added to the rivers

  • Urban runoff

    • When surface runoff collects pollutants from the urban environment

    • This may include diesel, salt, pesticides, etc.

  • Industry

    • Chemical pollutants and heavy metals may enter rivers from industrial and mining sites

  • Microplastics and persistent chemicals are also pollutants but are not yet monitored

Glossary