How Are Predicted Grades Calculated at A  Level?

Reviewed by: Liam Taft

Published

30 August 2025

Contents

Predicted grades can feel like a make-or-break moment in sixth form. They’re the grades your teachers submit to UCAS, (opens in a new tab) and universities often use them to decide whether to make you a conditional offer. This is why students often feel a lot of pressure around how fair and accurate these grades really are.

It’s natural to feel some pressure or anxiety around them. But it’s important to remember: predicted grades are a forecast, not a final result. They don’t define what you’re capable of achieving in your final exams

In this guide, we’ll explain exactly how predicted grades are decided: who makes the call, what evidence teachers use, and how schools check predictions for fairness. Plus, we’ll also go through what you can do if you’re worried about yours.

What Is a Predicted Grade?

A predicted grade is your teacher’s professional estimate of what you’re most likely to achieve in your A Levels. These grades are sent to UCAS in at the start of Year 13, and they form a key part of your university application.

Here’s what UCAS (opens in a new tab) says about predicted grades: “A UCAS predicted grade is the grade of qualification an applicant’s school or college believes they’re likely to achieve in positive circumstances”

Who Calculates Them – Teacher, Department, or School?

Your subject teacher usually makes the first prediction. They know your ability best and how you’re progressing.

But it doesn’t stop there:

Subject departments meet to compare predictions across classes. This keeps things consistent, so one teacher isn’t harsher or more generous than another.
Senior leadership teams then check all the predictions across the school. They compare them to previous year groups to make sure the overall picture is realistic

This process is called moderation. It stops individual bias and makes sure the school’s predictions match exam board expectations.

While this is the most common approach for deciding predicted grades, not every school follows the exact same steps. Some schools may have slightly different systems.

Core Inputs Used by Teachers

Your teachers don’t just guess your predicted grades. They base them on real evidence, like your classwork, tests, and mocks, and use their professional judgement. Because they know your strengths and weaknesses, they can make a realistic prediction of how you’re likely to do in the final exams.

Here are the main things teachers take into account:

Mock exams and in-class assessments: These count the most. Mock exams are done under real exam conditions, so they show how you handle pressure. Teachers usually see your most recent mock results as the best guide to your final grade.
Classwork and coursework: Your day-to-day work matters too. If you consistently hand in strong essays, lab reports, or practical projects, it proves you’re reliable and capable, and teachers will reflect that in your prediction.
Exam board grade boundaries: Teachers check past paper boundaries from boards like AQA (opens in a new tab), OCR (opens in a new tab), and Edexcel (opens in a new tab). This helps them see if the marks you’re getting match up with a B, an A, or even an A*.
Cohort and historical data: Schools also look at how past students performed. For example, if last year’s Year 13s often improved by a grade between mocks and the summer exams, teachers might factor in the same pattern for your year.
Professional judgement: It’s not all about the numbers. Effort, progress, and resilience matter. If you struggled in Year 12 but have really stepped up in Year 13, your teachers can take that improvement into account and predict a higher grade.

Common Misconceptions Debunked

Lots of myths float around about predicted grades, and they can cause a lot of unnecessary stress. Let’s clear a few of the biggest ones up:

“Predicted = guaranteed”: UCAS has shown that predictions and final results don’t always match up – especially at the top end. In 2024, nearly half of students were predicted to achieve AAA or higher, but only about a quarter actually achieved those grades. (opens in a new tab) So, a prediction isn’t a promise. It’s more like an educated guess.
“Mocks are everything”: Mocks do matter, but they’re not the be-all and end-all. Teachers know one poor exam result doesn’t define you. They’ll also look at your coursework, classwork, and whether you’ve been improving over time. So even if your mock didn’t go well, you can still show your teacher that you’re capable of more.
“Final exams can’t change anything”: Your summer exams are what really count. Predicted grades only matter for your uni application. Once results day comes, it’s your actual grades that decide your future. Even if your prediction isn’t what you wanted, you can still do well in your exams and come out on top.

The bottom line: don’t let myths around predicted grades knock your confidence. They’re an important part of UCAS applications, but they’re not the final word on what you can achieve.

What Can Students Do?

Predicted grades can really matter because in many cases, you need a certain predicted grade to even apply to a university course. For example, if the entry requirement is AAA, then you usually need to be predicted AAA (or above) to submit an application.

So if your predicted grade is lower than what you need, don’t panic. There are positive steps you can take to strengthen your case and show your teachers what you’re capable of.

Here’s how to put yourself in the best position:

Track your progress: Keep a note of your test scores, essays, and teacher comments. That way, you’ve got proof of how much you’re improving. For example, if your essays went from a C to a B to an A, it shows your teacher you’re moving in the right direction
Act on feedback: Teachers can tell when you actually listen to their advice. If they suggest working on your exam technique, structure, or subject knowledge, make sure you apply it next time. Showing that you’re learning from feedback proves you’re serious about improving.
Communicate politely: If you’re worried your prediction isn’t high enough, have a calm chat with your teacher. Don’t go straight in with “This is totally unfair.” Instead, try something like: “I’ve been improving in these areas, and I think my recent work shows I can do better. Could we look at this together?” Always back up what you say with evidence, not just emotion.
Be consistent: One-off high marks aren’t usually enough to raise a prediction. What matters most is steady effort over time. Think of it like sport – you can’t just play one amazing match and expect to get picked for the team. It’s the consistent training and performance that really count.

Remember, only challenge your predicted grade if you’re sure it’s too low, and you’ve got proof to back it up. If your grades so far match the prediction, it might be smarter to accept it and look at unis with slightly lower entry requirements. There are loads of amazing courses out there, all asking for different grades, so you’ll still have plenty of options.

For example, studying Philosophy at Sheffield University requires AAB (opens in a new tab) at A Level, while the same course at Newcastle University asks for ABB (opens in a new tab).

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I challenge my predicted grade?

Yes, you can request a review. However, schools aren’t required to change predictions, and there is no formal review process. The best approach is to show clear evidence of your progress.

How accurate are A Level predicted grades?

Research shows they’re often optimistic (opens in a new tab). Many students are predicted slightly higher than they achieve, but accuracy varies between subjects and schools.

Do different schools predict differently?

Yes. Some schools are more cautious, while others can be more generous. Moderation within each school helps make sure predictions line up with national standards.

Final Thoughts

Predicted grades aren’t just random numbers. Teachers work them out using your mocks, classwork, exam board data, and their professional judgement. They’re then checked by your school to make sure they’re fair.

But remember: predicted grades are just a guide. They’re not set in stone. Your final grades will come from the exams you sit in the summer, and you’ve got the power to shape those by how you prepare.

The best way to succeed in both your mocks and your final exams is to nail your revision routine. Past papers, timed questions, and mock-style practice are the fastest way to spot weak areas and build your confidence under pressure. The more you practise, the more exam-ready you’ll feel.

Want a head start? Take a look at our A Level revision tools for revision notes, exam questions, past papers and mark schemes to help you to practise like it’s the real thing. If you stay consistent and stay focused, not only can you match your predicted grades – you might even beat them.

You’ve got this!