A polygraph machine shows whether the answer to a question is the truth or a lie.
When a person answers a question, the polygraph shows one of two results.
Result | Meaning |
|---|
Truth | The polygraph believes the answer is the truth |
Lie | The polygraph believes the answer is a lie |
However, the result shown on the polygraph is not always correct.
When the answer is the truth, the polygraph incorrectly shows ‘Lie’ 10% of the time.
When the answer is a lie, the polygraph incorrectly shows ‘Truth’ 5% of the time.
A group of people are asked to test a polygraph by answering the question, “In what year were you born?”
80% of the group are told to answer with the truth.
The rest of the group are told to answer with a lie.
A person in the group is chosen at random to answer the question.
Work out the probability that the polygraph incorrectly shows ‘Lie’.