Sample Mean Distribution (DP IB Applications & Interpretation (AI)): Revision Note

Combinations of normal variables

What is a linear combination of normal random variables?

  • Suppose you have n independent normal random variables X subscript i tilde straight N invisible function application open parentheses mu subscript i comma blank sigma subscript i superscript 2 close parentheses for i = 1,2,3, ..., n

  • A linear combination is of the form X equals a subscript 1 X subscript 1 plus a subscript 2 X subscript 2 plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus a subscript n X subscript n plus b where ai and b are constants

  • The mean and variance can be calculated using results from random variables

    • straight E invisible function application open parentheses X close parentheses equals a subscript 1 mu subscript 1 plus a subscript 2 mu subscript 2 plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus a subscript n mu subscript n plus b

      • This result is true whether or not the variables are independent

    • Var invisible function application open parentheses X close parentheses equals a subscript 1 superscript 2 sigma subscript 1 superscript 2 plus a subscript 2 superscript 2 sigma subscript 2 superscript 2 plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus a subscript n superscript 2 sigma subscript n superscript 2

      • The variables need to be independent for this result to be true

  • A linear combination of n independent normal random variables is also a normal random variable itself

    •  X tilde straight N invisible function application open parentheses a subscript 1 mu subscript 1 plus a subscript 2 mu subscript 2 plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus a subscript n mu subscript n plus b comma space space a subscript 1 superscript 2 sigma subscript 1 superscript 2 plus a subscript 2 superscript 2 sigma subscript 2 superscript 2 plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus a subscript n superscript 2 sigma subscript n superscript 2 close parentheses

      • This has the expected mean and variance from above

      • The 'extra bit' is that a linear combination of independent normal random variables is also a normal random variable

    • This can be used to find probabilities when combining normal random variables

What is meant by the sample mean distribution?

  • Suppose you have a population with distribution X and you take a random sample with n observations X1, X2, ..., Xn

  • The sample mean distribution is the distribution of the values of the sample mean

    • top enclose X equals fraction numerator X subscript 1 plus X subscript 2 plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus X subscript n over denominator n end fraction

  • For an individual sample of n observations, the sample mean x with bar on top can be calculated

    • top enclose x equals fraction numerator x subscript 1 plus x subscript 2 plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus x subscript n over denominator n end fraction

      • This is also called a point estimate

    • top enclose X is the distribution of the point estimates

      • X with bar on top is a random variable

      • x with bar on top is a particular observation of X with bar on top

What does the sample mean distribution look like when X is normally distributed?

  • If the population is normally distributed then the sample mean distribution is also normally distributed

  • straight E invisible function application open parentheses X with bar on top close parentheses equals straight E invisible function application open parentheses fraction numerator X subscript 1 plus X subscript 2 plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus X subscript n over denominator n end fraction close parentheses equals fraction numerator straight E invisible function application open parentheses X subscript 1 close parentheses plus straight E invisible function application open parentheses X subscript 2 close parentheses plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus straight E left parenthesis X subscript n right parenthesis over denominator n end fraction equals fraction numerator mu plus mu plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus mu over denominator n end fraction equals fraction numerator n mu over denominator n end fraction equals mu

  • Var invisible function application open parentheses X with bar on top close parentheses equals Var invisible function application open parentheses fraction numerator X subscript 1 plus X subscript 2 plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus X subscript n over denominator n end fraction close parentheses equals fraction numerator Var invisible function application open parentheses X subscript 1 close parentheses plus Var invisible function application open parentheses X subscript 2 close parentheses plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus Var left parenthesis X subscript n right parenthesis over denominator n ² end fraction equals fraction numerator sigma ² plus sigma ² plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus sigma ² over denominator n ² end fraction equals fraction numerator n sigma ² over denominator n ² end fraction equals sigma squared over n

  • Therefore you divide the variance of the population by the size of the sample to get the variance of the sample mean distribution

    • X tilde straight N invisible function application open parentheses mu comma sigma squared close parentheses space rightwards double arrow space X with bar on top tilde straight N invisible function application open parentheses mu comma sigma squared over n close parentheses

Worked Example

Amber makes a cup of tea using a hot drink vending machine. When the hot water button is pressed the machine dispenses  Wml of hot water and when the milk button is pressed the machine dispenses M ml of milk. It is known that W tilde straight N invisible function application open parentheses 100 comma blank 15 squared close parentheses and M tilde straight N invisible function application open parentheses 10 comma blank 2 squared close parentheses

To make a cup of tea Amber presses the hot water button three times and the milk button twice. The total amount of liquid in Amber’s cup is modelled by C ml.

a) Write down the distribution of C.

4-9-1-ib-ai-hl-linear-normal-comb-a-we-solution

b) Find the probability that the total amount of liquid in Amber's cup exceeds 360 ml.

4-9-1-ib-ai-hl-linear-normal-comb-b-we-solution

c) Amber makes 15 cups of tea and calculates the mean C with bar on top. Write down the distribution of C with bar on top.

4-9-1-ib-ai-hl-linear-normal-comb-c-we-solution

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Dan Finlay

Author: Dan Finlay

Expertise: Maths Subject Lead

Dan graduated from the University of Oxford with a First class degree in mathematics. As well as teaching maths for over 8 years, Dan has marked a range of exams for Edexcel, tutored students and taught A Level Accounting. Dan has a keen interest in statistics and probability and their real-life applications.

Roger B

Reviewer: Roger B

Expertise: Maths Content Creator

Roger's teaching experience stretches all the way back to 1992, and in that time he has taught students at all levels between Year 7 and university undergraduate. Having conducted and published postgraduate research into the mathematical theory behind quantum computing, he is more than confident in dealing with mathematics at any level the exam boards might throw at you.